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1 – 10 of over 1000Jahanzaib Alvi and Imtiaz Arif
The crux of this paper is to unveil efficient features and practical tools that can predict credit default.
Abstract
Purpose
The crux of this paper is to unveil efficient features and practical tools that can predict credit default.
Design/methodology/approach
Annual data of non-financial listed companies were taken from 2000 to 2020, along with 71 financial ratios. The dataset was bifurcated into three panels with three default assumptions. Logistic regression (LR) and k-nearest neighbor (KNN) binary classification algorithms were used to estimate credit default in this research.
Findings
The study’s findings revealed that features used in Model 3 (Case 3) were the efficient and best features comparatively. Results also showcased that KNN exposed higher accuracy than LR, which proves the supremacy of KNN on LR.
Research limitations/implications
Using only two classifiers limits this research for a comprehensive comparison of results; this research was based on only financial data, which exhibits a sizeable room for including non-financial parameters in default estimation. Both limitations may be a direction for future research in this domain.
Originality/value
This study introduces efficient features and tools for credit default prediction using financial data, demonstrating KNN’s superior accuracy over LR and suggesting future research directions.
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Keywords
This paper aims to study the default risk of small and medium-sized enterprises in the construction sector.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to study the default risk of small and medium-sized enterprises in the construction sector.
Design/methodology/approach
An unbalanced sample of 2,754 Portuguese companies from the construction sector, from 2008 to 2020, is analysed. Companies are classified in default or compliant following an ex-ante criterion. Then, using the stepwise analysis, the most relevant variables are selected, which are later used in the logit model. To verify the robustness of the results, a sample of legally insolvent companies is added (mixed criterion) and the initial sample is split into two subperiods.
Findings
Financial variables are the most relevant to predict the pattern for this sample. The main conclusions show that smaller and older companies, more indebted, with more liquidity and with higher EBIT have a higher probability of default. These conclusions are confirmed using a mixed criterion to classify companies as default or compliant and including a macroeconomic dummy.
Practical implications
This work not only contributes to enlarging the literature review but also makes relevant contributions to practice. Companies from the construction sector can understand which indicators must control to avoid financial problems. The government also has relevant information that can help in adapting or creating regulations for recovering or revitalizing companies.
Originality/value
This study proposed an ex-ante criterion that can be used for all types of companies. Most works use a legal or a mixed criterion that does not allow for detecting signs of financial problems in advance. Moreover, the sample used is almost unexplored – SMEs from a sector with great mortality rate.
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Sakshi Khurana and Meena Sharma
This study aims to examine the impact of intellectual capital (IC) on default risk in Indian companies listed on the National Stock Exchange.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the impact of intellectual capital (IC) on default risk in Indian companies listed on the National Stock Exchange.
Design/methodology/approach
This study applies panel data regression analysis to derive a relationship between IC and default risk for the sample period 2013–2022. The value-added intellectual coefficient (VAIC) of Pulic (2000) has been applied to measure IC performance, and default risk is estimated using the revised Z-score model of Altman (2000).
Findings
The results revealed a positive association between Z-score and VAIC. It implies that a higher value of VAIC improves financial stability and leads to a lower likelihood of default. The findings further suggest that new default forecasting models can be experimented with IC indicators for better default prediction.
Practical implications
The findings can have implications for investors and banks. This paper provides evidence of IC performance in improving the financial solvency of firms. Investors and financial institutions should invest their resources in a healthy firm that effectively manages and invests in their IC. It will eventually award investors and creditors high returns through efficient value-creation processes.
Originality/value
This study provides evidence of IC performance in improving the financial solvency of Indian high-defaulting firms, which lacks sufficient evidence in this domain of research. Numerous studies exist examining the relationship between firm performance and IC value, but this area is inadequately focused and underresearched. This study, therefore, fills the research gap from an Indian perspective.
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Asish Saha, Lim Hock-Eam and Siew Goh Yeok
The authors analyse the determinants of loan defaults in micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) loans in India from the survival duration perspective to draw inferences that…
Abstract
Purpose
The authors analyse the determinants of loan defaults in micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) loans in India from the survival duration perspective to draw inferences that have implications for lenders and policymakers.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use the Kaplan–Meier survivor function and the Cox Proportional Hazard model to analyse 4.29 lakhs MSME loan account data originated by a large bank having a national presence from 1st January 2016 to 31st December 2020.
Findings
The estimated Kaplan–Meier survival function by various categories of loan and socio-demographic characteristics reflects heterogeneity and identifies the trigger points for actions. The authors identify the key identified default drivers. The authors find that the subsidy amount is more effective at the lower level and its effectiveness diminishes significantly beyond an optimum level. The simulated values show that the effects of rising interest rates on survival rates vary across industries and types of loans.
Practical implications
The identified points of inflection in the default dynamics would help banks to initiate actions to prevent loan defaults. The default drivers identified would foster more nuanced lending decisions. The study estimation of the survival rate based on the simulated values of interest rate and subsidy provides insight for policymakers.
Originality/value
This study is the first to investigate default drivers in MSME loans in India using micro-data. The study findings will act as signposts for the planners to guide the direction of the interest rate to be charged by banks in MSME loans, interest subvention and tailoring subsidy levels to foster sustainable growth.
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G.L. Infant Cyril and J.P. Ananth
The bank is termed as an imperative part of the marketing economy. The failure or success of an institution relies on the ability of industries to compute the credit risk. The…
Abstract
Purpose
The bank is termed as an imperative part of the marketing economy. The failure or success of an institution relies on the ability of industries to compute the credit risk. The loan eligibility prediction model utilizes analysis method that adapts past and current information of credit user to make prediction. However, precise loan prediction with risk and assessment analysis is a major challenge in loan eligibility prediction.
Design/methodology/approach
This aim of the research technique is to present a new method, namely Social Border Collie Optimization (SBCO)-based deep neuro fuzzy network for loan eligibility prediction. In this method, box cox transformation is employed on input loan data to create the data apt for further processing. The transformed data utilize the wrapper-based feature selection to choose suitable features to boost the performance of loan eligibility calculation. Once the features are chosen, the naive Bayes (NB) is adapted for feature fusion. In NB training, the classifier builds probability index table with the help of input data features and groups values. Here, the testing of NB classifier is done using posterior probability ratio considering conditional probability of normalization constant with class evidence. Finally, the loan eligibility prediction is achieved by deep neuro fuzzy network, which is trained with designed SBCO. Here, the SBCO is devised by combining the social ski driver (SSD) algorithm and Border Collie Optimization (BCO) to produce the most precise result.
Findings
The analysis is achieved by accuracy, sensitivity and specificity parameter by. The designed method performs with the highest accuracy of 95%, sensitivity and specificity of 95.4 and 97.3%, when compared to the existing methods, such as fuzzy neural network (Fuzzy NN), multiple partial least squares regression model (Multi_PLS), instance-based entropy fuzzy support vector machine (IEFSVM), deep recurrent neural network (Deep RNN), whale social optimization algorithm-based deep RNN (WSOA-based Deep RNN).
Originality/value
This paper devises SBCO-based deep neuro fuzzy network for predicting loan eligibility. Here, the deep neuro fuzzy network is trained with proposed SBCO, which is devised by combining the SSD and BCO to produce most precise result for loan eligibility prediction.
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Ivan Soukal, Jan Mačí, Gabriela Trnková, Libuse Svobodova, Martina Hedvičáková, Eva Hamplova, Petra Maresova and Frank Lefley
The primary purpose of this paper is to identify the so-called core authors and their publications according to pre-defined criteria and thereby direct the users to the fastest…
Abstract
Purpose
The primary purpose of this paper is to identify the so-called core authors and their publications according to pre-defined criteria and thereby direct the users to the fastest and easiest way to get a picture of the otherwise pervasive field of bankruptcy prediction models. The authors aim to present state-of-the-art bankruptcy prediction models assembled by the field's core authors and critically examine the approaches and methods adopted.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors conducted a literature search in November 2022 through scientific databases Scopus, ScienceDirect and the Web of Science, focussing on a publication period from 2010 to 2022. The database search query was formulated as “Bankruptcy Prediction” and “Model or Tool”. However, the authors intentionally did not specify any model or tool to make the search non-discriminatory. The authors reviewed over 7,300 articles.
Findings
This paper has addressed the research questions: (1) What are the most important publications of the core authors in terms of the target country, size of the sample, sector of the economy and specialization in SME? (2) What are the most used methods for deriving or adjusting models appearing in the articles of the core authors? (3) To what extent do the core authors include accounting-based variables, non-financial or macroeconomic indicators, in their prediction models? Despite the advantages of new-age methods, based on the information in the articles analyzed, it can be deduced that conventional methods will continue to be beneficial, mainly due to the higher degree of ease of use and the transferability of the derived model.
Research limitations/implications
The authors identify several gaps in the literature which this research does not address but could be the focus of future research.
Practical implications
The authors provide practitioners and academics with an extract from a wide range of studies, available in scientific databases, on bankruptcy prediction models or tools, resulting in a large number of records being reviewed. This research will interest shareholders, corporations, and financial institutions interested in models of financial distress prediction or bankruptcy prediction to help identify troubled firms in the early stages of distress.
Social implications
Bankruptcy is a major concern for society in general, especially in today's economic environment. Therefore, being able to predict possible business failure at an early stage will give an organization time to address the issue and maybe avoid bankruptcy.
Originality/value
To the authors' knowledge, this is the first paper to identify the core authors in the bankruptcy prediction model and methods field. The primary value of the study is the current overview and analysis of the theoretical and practical development of knowledge in this field in the form of the construction of new models using classical or new-age methods. Also, the paper adds value by critically examining existing models and their modifications, including a discussion of the benefits of non-accounting variables usage.
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Jan Svanberg, Tohid Ardeshiri, Isak Samsten, Peter Öhman, Presha E. Neidermeyer, Tarek Rana, Frank Maisano and Mats Danielson
The purpose of this study is to develop a method to assess social performance. Traditionally, environment, social and governance (ESG) rating providers use subjectively weighted…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to develop a method to assess social performance. Traditionally, environment, social and governance (ESG) rating providers use subjectively weighted arithmetic averages to combine a set of social performance (SP) indicators into one single rating. To overcome this problem, this study investigates the preconditions for a new methodology for rating the SP component of the ESG by applying machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) anchored to social controversies.
Design/methodology/approach
This study proposes the use of a data-driven rating methodology that derives the relative importance of SP features from their contribution to the prediction of social controversies. The authors use the proposed methodology to solve the weighting problem with overall ESG ratings and further investigate whether prediction is possible.
Findings
The authors find that ML models are able to predict controversies with high predictive performance and validity. The findings indicate that the weighting problem with the ESG ratings can be addressed with a data-driven approach. The decisive prerequisite, however, for the proposed rating methodology is that social controversies are predicted by a broad set of SP indicators. The results also suggest that predictively valid ratings can be developed with this ML-based AI method.
Practical implications
This study offers practical solutions to ESG rating problems that have implications for investors, ESG raters and socially responsible investments.
Social implications
The proposed ML-based AI method can help to achieve better ESG ratings, which will in turn help to improve SP, which has implications for organizations and societies through sustainable development.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this research is one of the first studies that offers a unique method to address the ESG rating problem and improve sustainability by focusing on SP indicators.
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Khaled Halteh and Milind Tiwari
The prevention of fraudulent activities, particularly within a financial context, is of paramount significance in all spheres, as it not only impacts the sustainability of…
Abstract
Purpose
The prevention of fraudulent activities, particularly within a financial context, is of paramount significance in all spheres, as it not only impacts the sustainability of corporate entities but also has the potential to have a broader economy-wide impact. This paper aims to focus on dual implications associated with financial distress, the first being associated with the temptation to launder funds due to financial distress, and the second being the potential for illicit activities, such as fraud, money laundering or terror financing, to give rise to financial distress.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper examines the literature on financial distress and uses theories of financial crime to establish a link between financial distress and financial crime.
Findings
In recent years, there has been a surge in corporate financial distress, particularly in the aftermath of concurrent crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. Through a comprehensive examination of literature pertaining to financial distress and financial crime, this study identifies a proclivity towards fraudulent conduct arising from instances of financial distress. Moreover, the engagement in such illicit activities subsequently exacerbates the financial distress. An analysis of the relationship between financial crime and financial distress reveals the existence of a vicious cycle between the two.
Originality/value
The results of this study have the potential to advance understanding of the relationship between financial distress and financial crime, which has been previously underexplored.
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Nisha, Neha Puri, Namita Rajput and Harjit Singh
The purpose of this study is to analyse and compile the literature on various option pricing models (OPM) or methodologies. The report highlights the gaps in the existing…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to analyse and compile the literature on various option pricing models (OPM) or methodologies. The report highlights the gaps in the existing literature review and builds recommendations for potential scholars interested in the subject area.
Design/methodology/approach
In this study, the researchers used a systematic literature review procedure to collect data from Scopus. Bibliometric and structured network analyses were used to examine the bibliometric properties of 864 research documents.
Findings
As per the findings of the study, publication in the field has been increasing at a rate of 6% on average. This study also includes a list of the most influential and productive researchers, frequently used keywords and primary publications in this subject area. In particular, Thematic map and Sankey’s diagram for conceptual structure and for intellectual structure co-citation analysis and bibliographic coupling were used.
Research limitations/implications
Based on the conclusion presented in this paper, there are several potential implications for research, practice and society.
Practical implications
This study provides useful insights for future research in the area of OPM in financial derivatives. Researchers can focus on impactful authors, significant work and productive countries and identify potential collaborators. The study also highlights the commonly used OPMs and emerging themes like machine learning and deep neural network models, which can inform practitioners about new developments in the field and guide the development of new models to address existing limitations.
Social implications
The accurate pricing of financial derivatives has significant implications for society, as it can impact the stability of financial markets and the wider economy. The findings of this study, which identify the most commonly used OPMs and emerging themes, can help improve the accuracy of pricing and risk management in the financial derivatives sector, which can ultimately benefit society as a whole.
Originality/value
It is possibly the initial effort to consolidate the literature on calibration on option price by evaluating and analysing alternative OPM applied by researchers to guide future research in the right direction.
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Abdulnaser Ibrahim Nour, Mohammad Najjar, Saed Al Koni, Abullateef Abudiak, Mahmoud Ibrahim Noor and Rani Shahwan
The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of governance mechanisms on corporate failure.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this research is to examine the impact of governance mechanisms on corporate failure.
Design/methodology/approach
This study used a hypothesis-testing research design to collect data from the annual reports of 35 companies listed on Palestine Exchange from 2010 to 2019. Descriptive and inferential statistics were employed, along with correlation analysis to evaluate linear relationships between variables. The variance inflation factor was used to test multicollinearity, and binary logistic regression was utilized to develop the research model.
Findings
There is a significant positive relationship between board of directors' independency, institutional ownership and the quality of external audit, and corporate failure reduction. No significant relationship has been found among corporate governance variables such as board size, board meetings' frequency, board members' remuneration and audit committee existence, and corporate failure reduction.
Research limitations/implications
Several empirical research studies have developed models to predict corporate failure using accounting and financial data. However, limited research has empirically investigated the impact of the different mechanisms of governance on corporate failure prediction.
Practical implications
The research highlighted the significance of companies' commitment to governance principles and their impact on predicting failure. The study suggests that decision-makers and managers can adopt different governance mechanisms to support corporate success and avoid those that may lead to negative consequences and failure.
Originality/value
This research is the first in Palestine to use a comprehensive list of corporate governance mechanisms to predict the failure of companies listed on the Palestine Stock Exchange between 2010 and 2019.
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