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This paper aims to examine the relationship between commercial bank lending and business cycle in South Africa. This paper attempts to know whether commercial bank lending in South Africa is procyclical.

The model assumed that the lending behaviour is related to the business cycle. In this study, vector error correction model (VECM) is used to capture the relationship between bank lending and business cycle to accurately elicit the macroeconomic long-run relationship between business cycle and bank lending, as some banks might slow down bank lending due to some idiosyncratic factors that are not related to the downturn in the economy. This paper uses data from South African Reserve Bank for the period of 1990-2015 using VECM to understand the extent to which business cycle fluctuation can affect credit crunch in the financial system. The Johansen cointegration approach is used to ascertain whether there is indeed a long-run co-movement between credit growth and business cycle.

Results from the VECM show that there are significant linkages among the variables, especially between credit to gross domestic product (GDP) and business cycle. The influence of business cycle is seen vividly after a period of four to five years, where business cycle explains 20 per cent of the variation in the credit to GDP. South African banks tend to change their lending behaviour during upturns and downturns. This result further confirms the assertion in theory that credit follows business cycle and can amplify credit crunch. The result shows that in the long run, fluctuations in the business cycle can influence the credit growth in South Africa.

The impulse analysis result shows that the impact of business cycle shock is very persistent and lasting. This also demonstrates that the shocks to the business cycle result have a persistent and long-lasting impact on credit. This study finds that commercial bank lending in South Africa is procyclical. It is suggested that the South African economy needs forward-looking policies that will mitigate the flow of credit to the real sector and at the same time ensure financial stability.

Most research papers rarely distinguish between the demand side and supply side of credit procyclicality. This report is presented to develop an econometric model that will examine demand side procyclicality. This study adopts more realistic and novel methods that will help in explaining the relationship between bank lending and business cycle in South Africa, especially after the global financial crisis. This report is presented with a concise and detailed analysis and interpretation.

This study examines the relationship between economic fluctuations and financial distress in the US agricultural sector, which is associated with a large degree of financial instability.

The authors developed a parsimonious model of economic fluctuations in the US agricultural sector. The authors used statistical filter methods to identify the co-movement in cyclical fluctuations in real, cumulative growth rates in farm real estate values, farm sector debt and leverage.

The proposed model closely approximated the financial evolution of the US agricultural sector between 1960 and 2018. In addition, the authors proved that the proposed model is an early warning indicator of farm loan delinquencies and farm bankruptcies.

This study exploits recent advances in economic theory and empirical macroeconomic modeling to develop a model that is a robust predictor of financial distress in the agricultural sector. Further, the authors demonstrate that the policy interventions following the 1980s farm financial crisis demonstrate the likely long-run economic response to the policies enacted following the 2008 financial crisis.

The discourse on credit cycles has been reinvigorated following the global crisis. The purpose of this paper is to contrast the positions of mainstream, Marxist, Austrian and post-Keynesian (PK) schools of thought on these matters. It is posited that most notions underplay the significance of real economy factors in shaping the fluctuations of credit levels and relations. It is argued these ideas are best illustrated by Marx (as interpreted by the Temporal Single System Interpretation) and tendency for the profit rate to fall with accumulation. Empirical evidence on the UK profit rate is provided as supporting evidence.

The paper explores the theoretical work on credit and business cycles from the relevant schools of thought and contrasts them. The aim is to consider which approach best describes the reality. Empirical work on the profit rate provides supporting evidence.

It is argued that the mainstream view of monetary neutrality is an insufficient explanation of the financial reality associated with credit and business cycles. Instead, it is posited that the PK approach, which emphasizes productive and financial factors, is more preferable. This contrasts with the usual singular financialization commentary that is used to describe the financial crisis and real economy stagnation that followed. It is argued that Marx’s notion of falling profit and its ramifications best explain the reality of both the credit and business cycle. This is supported by the evidence.

It is problematic to calculate a Marxian rate of profit given the lack of suitable reported statistics. The research illustrates the significance of productive factors, especially the tendency for the profit rate to fall, in driving business cycles. There are, therefore, implications for government fiscal/monetary/industrial policies to reflect these factors when seeking to influence the business cycle.

Policies that are designed to target levels of profitability are likely to be beneficial for capitalist sustainability.

The focus on profitability in the paper informs individuals working in business organizations of some of the imperatives facing corporations in a modern competitive environment.

Whether financial factors drive the business cycle, or are themselves driven by it, is an important question given that policy prescriptions will differ depending on the answer. The recent financialization commentary, for instance, suggests that better regulation or reform of the financial sector will preclude unstable business cycles. The paper argues, in contrast, that the cause of the credit instability is rooted in production (following Marx) and that, therefore, a more production-focused policy response is required whilst recognizing the instabilities of the credit system. This latter point has a measure of originality in the current discourse.

To the best of our knowledge, no study has examined credit cycle synchronizations in the context of emerging economies. Studying the credit cycles synchronization across BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries is crucial given the magnitude of trade and financial integration among member counties. The enormity of the trade and financial linkages among BRICS countries and growth spillovers from emerging economies to advanced and low-income countries provide the rationale and motivation to study the synchronization of credit cycles across BRICS.

The study investigates the credit cycles coherence across BRICS economies from 1996Q2 to 2020Q4. The synchronization analysis is done using the noval wavelet approach. The analysis examines not only the coherence but also the extent of credit cycle synchronization that varies across frequencies and over time among different pairs of nations.

The authors find heterogeneity in the credit cycles' synchronization among the member nations. China and India are very much in sync with the other BRICS countries. China's high-frequency credit cycle mostly leads the other countries' credit cycles before the global financial crisis and shows a mix of lead/lag relationships post-financial crisis. Interestingly, most of the time, India's low-frequency credit cycles lead the member countries' credit cycles, and Brazil's low frequency credit cycle lag behind the other BRICS countries' credit cycles, except for Russia. The results are crucial from the macroprudential policymaker's perspective.

The empirical design is applicable to a similar set of countries and may not directly fit each emerging economy.

The findings will help understand the marked deepening of trade, technology, investment and financial interdependence across the world. BRICS acronym requires no introduction, but such analysis may help understand the interaction at the monetary policy level.

This is the first study that highlights the need to understand the credit variable interactions for BRICS nations.

This paper aims to study the formation and amplification mechanism of the financial crisis and business cycle and also discuss the related optimal rules for the central bank and government.

This study is developed basically on a simple financial business cycle model by embedding credit constrains into the DSGE model.

The model in this paper puts forward an explanation for the mechanism of cycles' formation. Using this it finds that: the financial lever in modern economy is the offender of the USA financial crisis, which created the cycles and amplified it into the crisis when the financial lever multiple was increased to much greater levels, and that the traditional policy rule is not good enough for a long running growth process.

The findings in this study suggest that to keep the financial lever multiple under a safe level and to reform the policy rule to be good enough for a long run growth process is necessary.

According to the model's principle, the paper claims that: the development of the financial and credit markets during recent years has increased the volatility of the economic cycle – excessive credit abuse has become the root cause of the instability of the economy system; the proportion of the mortgage loan and similar financial products in the economy should be controlled strictly; it is necessary to recheck the traditional standpoint of the monetary policy. Rule policy by the Keynesian model exists as a short‐term problem, thus it is not sufficient to study the questions related to technological shocks.

The model in this paper explains well the mechanism of cycles and crisis' formation. The findings under the modeling economy give a safe level for financial lever multiples for the first time. The financial business cycle model being used in studying the Chinese economy is a pioneering and exploratory experiment.

This paper aims to focus on the banking crises recorded in Italy in the period 1861-2016 and to propose a novel classification based upon the timing of the crisis with respect to the business cycle.

A simple and objective rule to distinguish between slowdown and inner-banking crises is introduced. The real impact of banking crises is evaluated by integrating the narrative approach with an empirical vector autoregression analysis.

First, banking crises are not always associated to economic downturns. Especially in Italy, (but this analysis can be easily extended to other countries), they have often limited their negative effects within the financial system (“inner” crises). Second, the simultaneity of macroeconomic effects (credit contraction and GDP recession) leave the causal link undetermined. Third, the empirical and narrative analyses performed testify that boom–bust mechanisms are an exception in the panorama of (Italian) banking crises; although when the economy experiences such episodes, the economic and social consequences are not only severe but also enduring.

To classify historically recognized banking crisis episodes, the authors look at credit and GDP dynamics (and their ratio) around crisis years. Relying on a single definition of crisis is avoided. The classification provides an empirical rule to determine in what way banking crises differ. The classification is mostly based on the synchronization with the business cycle and, using the documented evolution of macroeconomic aggregates, it permits to highlight the fact that a variety of interactions occur between financial and real aggregates during and around banking crises.

As to the concept of systemic banking crisis, a qualitative judgment is often adopted to select relevant episodes, thus confirming the absence of a quantitative rule in classification criteria (Chaudron and de Haan, 2014). This paper proposes a simple and objective rule to distinguish between slowdown and inner-banking crises; the former occur close to a GDP contraction, whereas the latter appear to spread their effects with no substantial evidence of output loss.

The purpose of this paper is to provide a dating system for the Italian residential real estate market from 1927 to 2019 and investigate its interaction with credit and business cycles.

To detect the local turning point of the Italian residential real estate market, the authors apply the honeycomb cycle developed by Janssen et al. (1994) based on the joint analysis of house prices and the number of transactions. To this end, the authors use a unique historical reconstruction of house price levels by Baffigi and Piselli (2019) in addition to data on transactions.

This study confirms the validity of the honeycomb model for the last four decades of the Italian housing market. In addition, the results show that the severe downsizing of the housing market is largely associated with business and credit contraction, certainly contributing to exacerbating the severity of the recession. Finally, preliminary evidence suggests that whenever a price bubble occurs, it is coincident with the start of phase 2 of the honeycomb cycle.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that the honeycomb approach has been tested over such a long historical period and compared to the cyclic features of financial and real aggregates. In addition, even if the honeycomb cycle is not a model for detecting booms and busts in the housing market, the preliminary evidence might suggest a role for volume/transactions in detecting housing market bubbles.

This paper aims to complement to standard Basel countercyclical capital buffer framework by suggesting additional measures for credit gaps that can be used to measure the financial cycle and to decide on countercyclical capital buffers for banks.

The paper concentrates on European Union countries with the data starting from 1970. The authors check whether the newly suggested buffers are in place and sizable before financial distress periods.

The new measures are: the change in the credit-to-GDP ratio over two years; the growth in credit compared to the eight-year moving average of growth in nominal GDP over two years; the growth in credit compared to annual nominal growth of 5% over two years; and growth in credit relative to the nominal GDP trend value over two years. They behave similarly to the gaps calculated with the standard Basel one-sided Hodrick–Prescott filter in long samples.

The main contribution of the paper is to suggest new alternative measures of credit cycles that can be used in short samples and in case of structural breaks. New measures correlate well with actual countercyclical capital buffers in place in 2018.

This paper aims to provide new empirical evidence on the non-performing loan (NPL) determinants of the EU conventional banks, in the context of macroeconomic factors, dimensions of country governance and bank-specific characteristics.

The panel data sets of 1,053 conventional banks were obtained over the period of 2007-2016. The Hodrick–Prescott filter was adopted to extract business cycle and credit cycle from real gross domestic product and credit to the private non-financial sector, correspondingly. System-generalised methods of moment was then used to identify the significant determinants of NPL.

The empirical results reveal that NPL is primarily driven positively by lagged-one NPL and risk profile. In consonance with the skimping hypothesis, NPL has a significant positive relationship with the cost efficiency. The empirical finding of the business cycle coincides with the Austrian business cycle theory. Particularly, NPL is relatively low during rapid economic growth of credit-sourced business boom. Whereas, business bust happens when credit creation runs its course and is associated with high NPL. This paper encapsulates that NPL is driven by not only macroeconomic factors and bank-specific characteristics but also the dimensions of country governance.

Policymakers should introduce policies that are geared towards proper dimensions of country governance.

The novelty of this research does not rely on the multidimensions of NPL determinants but on the disentanglement of the conventional banks with dual identity (i.e. Islamic banks, cooperative banks and ethical banks). It considers business cycle, credit cycle and previous NPL as the potential determinants.

The purpose of this paper is to assess whether the rapid accumulation of bank deposits before the global financial crisis and their subsequent drastic reduction was the main driving force of the Cyprus house price cycle over the period 2006–2015.

To this aim we estimate a three-equation model in which house prices are determined by housing loans, among other factors, and housing loans are determined by bank deposits. All equations are estimated using partial adjustment model specifications.

Our findings indicate that housing loans, which capture the effect of credit availability on housing demand, had the smallest effect on house prices, thus providing little support to our proposition of a deposits-driven cycle in house prices.

The main limitation of the study is the use of the housing loan stock instead of the actual volume of housing loans in each period due to lack of such data. As a result our econometric estimates may not accurately capture the magnitude of the effect of housing loans on house prices.

The study has important practical implications for policy makers as it highlights the importance of availability of credit in supporting effective demand for housing during periods of economic growth. Furthermore, it highlights the key role of house price increases in combination with the collateral effect in driving the house price cycle.

This is among the few studies internationally and the first study in Cyprus that attempts to link econometrically the credit and house price cycles that were caused by the global financial crisis.