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The purpose of this paper is to focus on the findings of a review of the Learning Advice Service which provided mainstream learning opportunities and individual support to people using mental health services. The service was decommissioned after 15 years due to service reconfiguration and cost-cutting.

Semi-structured interviews were carried out with members of the Learning Advisor’s caseload by a researcher with no affiliation to the NHS or the Institute of Mental Health and no connection to the clients. The researcher also transcribed and analysed the interviews. This ensured that there could be no personal or positive bias. The clients faced significant mental health challenges and used the Learning Advice Service to facilitate and support their entry into mainstream learning.

The service enabled individuals facing significant mental health challenges to gain access to adult, community, distance and further and higher education facilitated by individual advice, guidance and support. They were able to broaden their sense of identity beyond that of someone using mental health services and to widen their social and educational base.

Lack of funding within mental health services to continue this type of work limits research which would further explore the value of mainstream education in the recovery of people with a mental health diagnosis. While this cohort was small because of funding and staffing constraints, it would be possible to generalise to a larger scale, using flexible person-centred ways of working if the will, staffing and funding were made available. Further research is certainly indicated as current practice has moved away from mainstream inclusion to discrete provision with associated limitations.

The practical implications include the development of autonomy and the development of a sense of identity that is separate from a mental health diagnosis and where appropriate to gain qualifications and further the student’s knowledge.

Social implications include broadening one’s experience, developing communication skills in a broad context, transferable skills, independence and strengthening one’s sense of identity separate from a mental health diagnosis.

Individuals from a variety of educational and other backgrounds who expressed an interest in pursuing education in mainstream facilities were encouraged and supported in doing so in flexible and individual ways. It appears to be more usual that people using mental health services are encouraged to learn in groups comprising other people using such services, frequently on mental health service premises with associated limitations.

This paper illustrates that natural disasters can significantly threaten financial institutions serving the poor. The authors test the case of a microfinance institution (MFI) in Northern Peru, where severe El Niño events create catastrophic flooding.

Portfolio‐level, monthly data from January 1994 to October 2008 were examined using an intervention analysis. The paper tested whether the 1997‐1998 El Niño increased problem loans and estimated the magnitude of the effect.

The results indicate El Niño significantly increased problem loans, specifically the level of restructured loans. While restructured loans averaged 0.5 percent of the total loan portfolio before the El Niño, the estimated cumulative effect of El Niño indicates that an additional 3.6 percent of the portfolio value was restructured due to this event.

Future research could build on these results by modeling insurance‐type mechanisms for the MFI. Additional research that replicates these analyses in another context would be highly valuable for comparison across natural disasters and financial institutions.

The findings demonstrate that the correlated risk exposure of many small borrowers can significantly affect the lender and the importance of considering bank management in assessing disaster risk of a financial institution.

Lender strategies to minimize losses may require long‐term restructuring that perpetuates the effects of the disaster in the community.

This paper may be of particular value to researchers and practitioners hoping to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of MFIs concentrated in regions exposed to natural disaster risk.

Purpose – This chapter uses the work of Oxford economist Paul Collier to explore the conditions under which financing systems can be created to support the governance and economies of fragile states. This support is especially needed in the immediacy of a crisis or as a practical strategy to potentially change the dynamics of a particularly vulnerable state. The focus is on his 2008 proposal for Haiti, for a partnership of domestic and international financial institutions. Central to the proposal is the establishment of an Independent Service Authority (ISA) to fund and implement government policy, especially in delivery of basic services. Representatives from aid donors, Haitian expatriates or diaspora and members of the government would sit on the ISA board, sharing responsibility for effectively administering public funds. This model was proposed to the United Nations in late 2008 to stabilise and transform the government and economy of Haiti (Collier, 2008, 2009b).

Methodology – The chapter explores the issues raised in the model using a case study of the Regional Assistance Mission in the Solomon Islands (RAMSI).

Findings – “The work concludes that the RAMSI process worked well to stabilise financial systems and survived significant political challenge due to a framework of local agreements, regional or international resolutions, treaties, statutes and contracts. This suggests that such a framework will help to ‘buttress’ any mixed local–international financial institutions in the event of domestic political or legal contest in Haiti (or wherever else this model is considered).

Limitations – The chapter does not compare Haiti and the Solomon Islands as societies or economies, or go into the details of how the proposed financial institutions would operate and transition to other arrangements. Space also prevents consideration of the other international partnership models applied in Haiti from 2006–08 (e.g. the Haiti Economic Governance Reform Operation or EGRO; see the case study on Haiti by Bradford and Scott (forthcoming), 76–84). After the earthquake in January 2010, Collier re-visited Haiti and stressed the importance of longer-term economic transformation (a Haiti Marshall plan) as well as emergency relief.**Collier, P., & Warnholz, J.-L. (2010a). Haiti earthquake: Social and economic fabric must be rebuilt too. The Guardian, Sunday, 17 January. Available at http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jan/17/haitiearthquake-social-fabric-rebuilt; Collier, P., & Warnholz, J.-L. (2010b). We need a Marshall plan for Haiti. Globe and Mail, 13 January. Available at http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/we-need-amarshall-plan-for-haiti/article1430309/ A key element of the international community's assistance will be finding mechanisms to handle finances. However the details of the new proposals are yet to be made public, hence this chapter focuses solely on Collier's 2008 proposals.

Alvin Hansen and John Williams’ Fiscal Policy Seminar at Harvard University is widely regarded as a key mechanism for the spread of Keynesianism in the United States. An original and regular participant, Richard A. Musgrave was invited to prepare remarks for the fiftieth anniversary of the seminar in 1988. These were never published, though a copy was filed with Musgrave’s papers at Princeton University. Their reproduction here is important for several reasons. First, it is one of the last reminiscences of the original participants. Second, the remarks make an important contribution to our understanding of the Harvard School of macro-fiscal policy. Third, the remarks provide interesting insights into Musgrave’s views on national economic policymaking as well as the intersection between theory and practice. The reminiscence demonstrates the importance of the seminar in shifting Musgrave’s research focus and moving him to a more pragmatic approach to public finance.

In their chapter, ‘A method to compute a peace gross world product by country and by economic sector’, Jurgen Brauer and John Tepper Marlin present a novel method to assess the economic value of peace, in both the domestic and international realms. This is not only a tool for assessing and forecasting the potential benefits of reduced violence, but it is an example of best social science practice in that by design it incorporates the best existing knowledge on the effects of peace. This approach combining meta-analysis with a novel integrating framework is quite promising. For the purposes of the book, it sets the stage nicely for the subsequent chapters by highlighting the big picture of expected welfare gains from peace, within a rigorous scientific context, rather than one of advocacy. Estimating the potential economic benefits of internal and international peace is also fundamental in understanding the potential economic incentives which might drive political and business leaders to avoid deadly conflict, and pursue peace.

Communications regarding this column should be addressed to Mrs. Cheney, Peabody Library School, Nashville, Term. 37203. Mrs. Cheney does not sell the books listed here. They are available through normal trade sources. Mrs. Cheney, being a member of the editorial board of Pierian Press, will not review Pierian Press reference books in this column. Descriptions of Pierian Press reference books will be included elsewhere in this publication.

Purpose – The main purpose is to provide ideas about an intellectual framework for considering the role of “economic factors” in conflict and to suggest some potentially useful future areas of research. I selectively reference some relevant findings from the other chapters in this volume.

Methodology/approach – This chapter is speculative, but raises important issues. It might seem that economic factors should be considered “hard” constraints on the dynamics of large-scale conflict and peace, whereas political factors are “soft.” I propose the opposite. I argue that we should consider political factors as causally primary and economic factors as contingent on them. I present statistical analyses that call into question some recent research on the apparent primacy of economic factors in international conflict.

Findings – These models challenge a strong belief in the primacy of a “capitalist peace” or “economic peace” over political factors such as democracy. But my purpose here is no more than to suggest that this is a promising area for further inquiry. Economic factors are of course hugely important, but they are filtered through norms and institutions, which are political creations. If the basic logic of my thinking holds, similar results would be obtained for studies of civil conflict initiation and escalation.

Originality/value of paper – This chapter raises the issue of the appropriate place of economic and political factors in understanding organized conflict at various levels of analysis. It suggests how the chapters in this volume help advance thinking about the relationship between economic factors and conflict in this context and provides some novel empirical results to suggest the plausibility of the argument that economic factors may be less theoretically fundamental than political ones.

Machine learning algorithms are useful to effectively analyse, and therefore automatically classify online reviews. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate a novel text-mining framework and its potential for use in the classification of unstructured hotel reviews.

Well-known data mining methods (i.e. boosted decision trees (BDT), classification and regression trees (C&RT) and random forests (RF)) in conjunction with incorporating five-fold cross-validation are used to predict the star rating of the hotel reviews. To achieve this goal, extracted features are used to create a composite variable (CV) to deploy into machine learning algorithms as the main feature (variable) during the learning process.

BDT outperformed the other alternatives in the exact accuracy rate (EAR) and multi-class accuracy rate (MCAR) by reaching the accuracy rates of 0.66 and 0.899, respectively. Moreover, phrases such as “clean”, “friendly”, “nice”, “perfect” and “love” are shown to be associated with four and five stars, whereas, phrases such as “horrible”, “never”, “terrible” and “worst” are shown to be associated with one and two-star hotels, as it would be the intuitive expectation.

To the best of the knowledge, there is no study in the existent literature, which synthesizes the knowledge obtained from individual features and uses them to create a single composite variable that is powerful enough to predict the star rates of the user-generated reviews. This study believes that the proposed method also provides policymakers with a unique window in the thoughts and opinions of individual users, which may be used to augment the current decision-making process.

Purpose – The chapter studies the impact of fiscal policy on the stabilisation of peace in the aftermath of a civil war.

Methodology – We use data from African war-torn countries and study the issue of post-conflict stabilisation from an empirical perspective. We employ probit analysis to formally estimate the effect of fiscal policy on the probability of maintaining peace in the post-conflict period.

Findings – The success of post-conflict transition does not require downsizing the government. On the contrary, successful post-conflict transitions are on average characterised by an increase in the size of the government. However, both expenditures and revenues increase at a comparable pace. Moreover, in successful post-conflict transitions, the increase in government size involves an increase in the incidence of capital expenditure relative to government consumption. On the revenue side, budgetary grants appear to strengthen the chances of success. A heavier debt burden does not seem to compromise the probability of successfully completing the post-conflict transition.

Research limitations/implications – Future research should (i) extend the sample to non-African countries, (ii) extend the analysis to other macroeconomic policy variables and (iii) supplement cross-country analysis on the role of fiscal policy with country case studies. A potential application of the findings of this chapter is the construction of a model to predict the evolution of currently ongoing post-conflict transitions.

Social implications – The findings bear implications on how governments should conduct fiscal policy in the aftermath of a conflict. They also provide guidelines for the international community on how best to assist post-conflict economies.

Originality – Papers concerned with the determinants of peace in the post-conflict period do not generally look at the potential contribution of fiscal policy. This chapter is the first attempt, to the best of our knowledge, to provide econometric evidence on the role of fiscal policy as a possible driver of peace stabilisation in the aftermath of a conflict.