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This paper examines variable selection among various factors related to motor vehicle fatality rates using a rich set of panel data. Four Bayesian methods are used. These include Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA), Stochastic Search Variable Selection (SSVS), Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), and Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART). The first three of these employ parameter estimation, the last, BART, involves no parameter estimation. Nonetheless, it also has implications for variable selection. The variables examined in the models include traditional motor vehicle and socioeconomic factors along with important policy-related variables. Policy recommendations are suggested with respect to cell phone use, modernization of the fleet, alcohol use, and diminishing suicidal behavior.

We put forward the idea that for model selection the intrinsic priors are becoming a center of a cluster of a dominant group of methodologies for objective Bayesian Model Selection.

The intrinsic method and its applications have been developed in the last two decades, and has stimulated closely related methods. The intrinsic methodology can be thought of as the long searched approach for objective Bayesian model selection and hypothesis testing.

In this paper we review the foundations of the intrinsic priors, their general properties, and some of their applications.

There is abundant literature analyzing the determinants of banks’ profitability through its main component: the net interest margin. Some of these determinants are suggested by seminal theoretical models and subsequent expansions. Others are ad-hoc selections. Up to now, there are no studies assessing these models from a Bayesian model uncertainty perspective. This paper aims to analyze this issue for the EU-15 countries for the period 2008-2014, which mainly corresponds to the Great Recession years.

It follows a Bayesian variable selection approach to analyze, in a first step, which variables of those suggested by the literature are actually good predictors of banks’ net interest margin. In a second step, using a model selection approach, the authors select the model with the best fit. Finally, the paper provides inference and quantifies the economic impact of the variables selected as good candidates.

The results widely support the validity of the determinants proposed by the seminal models, with only minor discrepancies, reinforcing their capacity to explain net interest margin disparities also during the recent period of restructuring of the banking industry.

The paper is, to the best of the knowledge, the first one following a Bayesian variable selection approach in this field of the literature.

This paper addresses the issue of improving the forecasting performance of vector autoregressions (VARs) when the set of available predictors is inconveniently large to handle with methods and diagnostics used in traditional small-scale models. First, available information from a large dataset is summarized into a considerably smaller set of variables through factors estimated using standard principal components. However, even in the case of reducing the dimension of the data the true number of factors may still be large. For that reason I introduce in my analysis simple and efficient Bayesian model selection methods. Model estimation and selection of predictors is carried out automatically through a stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) algorithm which requires minimal input by the user. I apply these methods to forecast 8 main U.S. macroeconomic variables using 124 potential predictors. I find improved out-of-sample fit in high-dimensional specifications that would otherwise suffer from the proliferation of parameters.

Joint space multidimensional scaling (MDS) maps are often utilized for positioning analyses and are estimated with survey data of consumer preferences, choices, considerations, intentions, etc. so as to provide a parsimonious spatial depiction of the competitive landscape. However, little attention has been given to the possibility that consumers may display heterogeneity in their information usage (Bettman et al., 1998) and the possible impact this may have on the corresponding estimated joint space maps. This paper aims to address this important issue and proposes a new Bayesian multidimensional unfolding model for the analysis of two or three-way dominance (e.g. preference) data. The authors’ new MDS model explicitly accommodates dimension selection and preference heterogeneity simultaneously in a unified framework.

This manuscript introduces a new Bayesian hierarchical spatial MDS model with accompanying Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for estimation that explicitly places constraints on a set of scale parameters in such a way as to model a consumer using or not using each latent dimension in forming his/her preferences while at the same time permitting consumers to differentially weigh each utilized latent dimension. In this manner, both preference heterogeneity and dimensionality selection heterogeneity are modeled simultaneously.

The superiority of this model over existing spatial models is demonstrated in both the case of simulated data, where the structure of the data is known in advance, as well as in an empirical application/illustration relating to the positioning of digital cameras. In the empirical application/illustration, the policy implications of accounting for the presence of dimensionality selection heterogeneity is shown to be derived from the Bayesian spatial analyses conducted. The results demonstrate that a model that incorporates dimensionality selection heterogeneity outperforms models that cannot recognize that consumers may be selective in the product information that they choose to process. Such results also show that a marketing manager may encounter biased parameter estimates and distorted market structures if he/she ignores such dimensionality selection heterogeneity.

The proposed Bayesian spatial model provides information regarding how individual consumers utilize each dimension and how the relationship with behavioral variables can help marketers understand the underlying reasons for selective dimensional usage. Further, the proposed approach helps a marketing manager to identify major dimension(s) that could maximize the effect of a change of brand positioning, and thus identify potential opportunities/threats that existing MDS methods cannot provides.

To date, no existent spatial model utilized for brand positioning can accommodate the various forms of heterogeneity exhibited by real consumers mentioned above. The end result can be very inaccurate and biased portrayals of competitive market structure whose strategy implications may be wrong and non-optimal. Given the role of such spatial models in the classical segmentation-targeting-positioning paradigm which forms the basis of all marketing strategy, the value of such research can be dramatic in many marketing applications, as illustrated in the manuscript via analyses of both synthetic and actual data.

We consider forecast combination and, indirectly, model selection for VAR models when there is uncertainty about which variables to include in the model in addition to the forecast variables. The key difference from traditional Bayesian variable selection is that we also allow for uncertainty regarding which endogenous variables to include in the model. That is, all models include the forecast variables, but may otherwise have differing sets of endogenous variables. This is a difficult problem to tackle with a traditional Bayesian approach. Our solution is to focus on the forecasting performance for the variables of interest and we construct model weights from the predictive likelihood of the forecast variables. The procedure is evaluated in a small simulation study and found to perform competitively in applications to real world data.

In this paper, I propose an algorithm combining adaptive sampling and Reversible Jump MCMC to deal with the problem of variable selection in time-varying linear model. These types of model arise naturally in financial application as illustrated by a motivational example. The methodology proposed here, dubbed adaptive reversible jump variable selection, differs from typical approaches by avoiding estimation of the factors and the difficulties stemming from the presence of the documented single factor bias. Illustrated by several simulated examples, the algorithm is shown to select the appropriate variables among a large set of candidates.

Our paper discusses simulation-based Bayesian inference using information from previous draws to build the proposals. The aim is to produce samplers that are easy to implement, that explore the target distribution effectively, and that are computationally efficient and mix well.

The purpose of this paper is to identify user-generated content (UGC) features that determine web purchase decision making.

The authors embed a spike-and-slab Bayesian variable selection mechanism into a logistic regression model to identify the UGC features that are critical to web purchase intent. This enables us to make a highly reliable analysis of survey data.

The results indicate that the web purchase decision is driven by the relevance, up-to-dateness and credibility of the UGC information content.

The results show that the characteristics of UGC are seen as positive and the medium enables consumers to sort information and concentrate on aspects of the message that are similar to traditional word-of-mouth (WOM). One important implication is the relative importance of credibility which has been previously hypothesized to be lower in the electronic word-of-mouth (e-WOM) context. The results show that consumers consider credibility important as the improved technology provides more possibilities to find out about that factor. A limitation is that the data are not fully representative of the general population but our Bayesian method gives us high analytical quality.

The study shows that UGC impacts consumer online purchase intentions. Marketers should understand the wide range of media that provide UGC and they should concentrate on the relevance, up-to-dateness and credibility of product information that they provide.

The analytical quality of the spike- and- slab Bayesian method suggests a new way of understanding the impact of aspects of UGC on consumers.

This paper aims to popularize the Bayesian methods among novice management researchers. The paper interprets the results of Bayesian method of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), structural equation modelling (SEM), mediation and moderation analysis, with the intention that the novice researchers will apply this method in their research. The paper made an attempt in discussing various complex mathematical concepts such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Bayes factor, Bayesian information criterion and deviance information criterion (DIC), etc. in a lucid manner.

Data collected from 172 pharmaceutical sales representatives were used. The study will help the management researchers to perform Bayesian CFA, Bayesian SEM, Bayesian moderation analysis and Bayesian mediation analysis using SPSS AMOS software.

The interpretation of the results of Bayesian CFA, Bayesian SEM and Bayesian mediation analysis were discussed.

The management scholars are non-statisticians and are not much aware of the benefits offered by Bayesian methods. Hitherto, the management scholars use predominantly traditional SEM in validating their models empirically, and this study will give an exposure to “Bayesian statistics” that has practical advantages.

This is one paper, which discusses the following four concepts: Bayesian method of CFA, SEM, mediation and moderation analysis.