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As an important load-bearing component of cable-stayed bridge, the cable-stayed cable is an important load-bearing link for the bridge superstructure and the load transferred directly to the bridge tower. In order to better manage the risk of the cable system in the construction process, the purpose of this paper is to study a new method of dynamic risk analysis of the cable system of the suspended multi-tower cable-stayed bridge based on the Bayesian network.

First of all, this paper focuses on the whole process of the construction of the cable system, analyzes the construction characteristics of each process, identifies the safety risk factors in the construction process of the cable system, and determines the causal relationship between the risk factors. Secondly, the prior probability distribution of risk factors is determined by the expert investigation method, and the risk matrix method is used to evaluate the safety risk of cable failure quantitatively. The function expression of risk matrix is established by combining the probability of risk event occurrence and loss level. After that, the topology structure of Bayesian network is established, risk factors and probability parameters are incorporated into the network and then the Bayesian principle is applied to update the posterior probability of risk events according to the new information in the construction process. Finally, the construction reliability evaluation of PAIRA bridge main bridge cable system in Bangladesh is taken as an example to verify the effectiveness and accuracy of the new method.

The feasibility of using Bayesian network to dynamically assess the safety risk of PAIRA bridge in Bangladesh is verified by the construction reliability evaluation of the main bridge cable system. The research results show that the probability of the accident resulting from the insufficient safety of the cable components of the main bridge of PAIRA bridge is 0.02, which belongs to a very small range. According to the analysis of the risk grade matrix, the risk grade is Ⅱ, which belongs to the acceptable risk range. In addition, according to the reverse reasoning of the Bayesian model, when the serious failure of the cable system is certain to occur, the node with the greatest impact is B3 (cable break) and its probability of occurrence is 82%, that is, cable break is an important reason for the serious failure of the cable system. The factor that has the greatest influence on B3 node is C6 (cable quality), and its probability is 34%, that is, cable quality is not satisfied is the main reason for cable fracture. In the same way, it can be obtained that the D9 (steel wire fracture inside the cable) event of the next level is the biggest incentive of C6 event, its occurrence probability is 32% and E7 (steel strand strength is not up to standard) event is the biggest incentive of D9 event, its occurrence probability is 13%. At the same time, the sensitivity analysis also confirmed that B3, C6, D9 and E7 risk factors were the main causes of risk occurrence.

This paper proposes a Bayesian network-based construction reliability assessment method for cable-stayed bridge cable system. The core purpose of this method is to achieve comprehensive and accurate management and control of the risks in the construction process of the cable system, so as to improve the service life of the cable while strengthening the overall reliability of the structure. Compared with the existing evaluation methods, the proposed method has higher reliability and accuracy. This method can effectively assess the risk of the cable system in the construction process, and is innovative in the field of risk assessment of the cable system of cable-stayed bridge construction, enriching the scientific research achievements in this field, and providing strong support for the construction risk control of the cable system of cable-stayed bridge.

The study examines the impact of behavioral biases, such as herd behavior, overconfidence and reactions to ESG News, on Socially Responsible Investing (SRI) decisions in the Indian context. Additionally, it explores gender differences in SRI decisions, thereby deepening the understanding of the factors shaping SRI choices and their implications for sustainable finance and gender-inclusive investment strategies.

The study employs Bayesian linear regression to analyze the impact of behavioral biases on SRI decisions among Indian investors since it accommodates uncertainties and integrates prior knowledge into the analysis. Posterior distributions are determined using the Markov chain Monte Carlo technique, ensuring robust and reliable results.

The presence of behavioral biases presents challenges and opportunities in the financial sector, hindering investors’ SRI engagement but offering valuable opportunities for targeted interventions. Peer advice and hot stocks strongly predict SRI engagement, indicating external influences. Investors reacting to extreme ESG events increasingly integrate sustainability into investment decisions. Gender differences reveal a greater inclination of women towards SRI in India.

The sample size was relatively small and restricted to a specific geographic region, which may limit the generalizability of the findings to other areas. While efforts were made to select a diverse sample, the results may represent something different than the broader population. The research focused solely on individual investors and did not consider the perspectives of institutional investors or other stakeholders in the SRI industry.

The study's practical implications are twofold. First, knowing how behavioral biases, such as herd behavior, overconfidence, and reactions to ESG news, affect SRI decisions can help investors and managers make better and more sustainable investment decisions. To reduce biases and encourage responsible investing, strategies might be created. In addition, the discovery of gender differences in SRI decisions, with women showing a stronger propensity, emphasizes the need for targeted marketing and communication strategies to promote more engagement in sustainable finance. These implications provide valuable insights for investors, managers, and policymakers seeking to advance sustainable investment practices.

The study has important social implications. It offers insights into the factors influencing individuals' SRI decisions, contributing to greater awareness and responsible investment practices. The gender disparities found in the study serve as a reminder of the importance of inclusivity in sustainable finance to promote balanced and equitable participation. Addressing these disparities can empower individuals of both genders to contribute to positive social and environmental change. Overall, the study encourages responsible investing and has a beneficial social impact by working towards a more sustainable and socially conscious financial system.

This study addresses a significant research gap by employing Bayesian linear regression method to examine the impact of behavioral biases on SRI decisions thereby offering more meaningful results compared to conventional frequentist estimation. Furthermore, the integration of behavioral finance with sustainable finance offers novel perspectives, contributing to the understanding of investors, investment managers, and policymakers, therefore, catalyzing responsible capital allocation. The study's exploration of gender dynamics adds a new dimension to the existing research on SRI and behavioral finance.

This study aimed to address a gap in subcontractor management by focusing on previously unexplored complexities surrounding subcontractor management in developing countries. While past studies concentrated on selection and relationships, this study delved into how effective subcontractor management impacts project success.

This study used the Bayesian Network analysis approach, through a meticulously developed questionnaire survey refined through a piloting stage involving experienced industry professionals. The survey was ultimately distributed among participants based in Accra, Ghana, resulting in a response rate of approximately 63%.

The research identified diverse components contributing to subcontractor disruptions, highlighted the necessity of a clear regulatory framework, emphasized the impact of financial and leadership assessments on performance, and underscored the crucial role of main contractors in Integrated Project and Labour Cost Management with Subcontractor Oversight and Coordination.

Previous studies have not considered the challenges subcontractors face in projects. This investigation bridges this gap from multiple perspectives, using Bayesian network analysis to enhance subcontractor management, thereby contributing to the successful completion of construction projects.

The growing availability of naturalistic driving datasets (NDDs) presents a valuable opportunity to develop various models for autonomous driving. However, while current NDDs include data on vehicles with and without intended driving behavior changes, they do not explicitly demonstrate a type of data on vehicles that intend to change their driving behavior but do not execute the behaviors because of safety, efficiency, or other factors. This missing data is essential for autonomous driving decisions. This study aims to extract the driving data with implicit intentions to support the development of decision-making models.

According to Bayesian inference, drivers who have the same intended changes likely share similar influencing factors and states. Building on this principle, this study proposes an approach to extract data on vehicles that intended to execute specific behaviors but failed to do so. This is achieved by computing driving similarities between the candidate vehicles and benchmark vehicles with incorporation of the standard similarity metrics, which takes into account information on the surrounding vehicles' location topology and individual vehicle motion states. By doing so, the method enables a more comprehensive analysis of driving behavior and intention.

The proposed method is verified on the Next Generation SIMulation dataset (NGSim), which confirms its ability to reveal similarities between vehicles executing similar behaviors during the decision-making process in nature. The approach is also validated using simulated data, achieving an accuracy of 96.3 per cent in recognizing vehicles with specific driving behavior intentions that are not executed.

This study provides an innovative approach to extract driving data with implicit intentions and offers strong support to develop data-driven decision-making models for autonomous driving. With the support of this approach, the development of autonomous vehicles can capture more real driving experience from human drivers moving towards a safer and more efficient future.

The purpose of this study is to unfold the existing information channel in the higher moments of currency futures for different time horizons.

The authors use a quasi-Bayesian local likelihood approach within a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) framework and a dynamic connectedness measure to study the volatility, skewness and kurtosis of most traded currency futures.

The authors’ results suggest a time-varying presence of dynamic connectedness within higher moments of currency futures. Most spillovers pertain to shorter time horizons. The authors find that in net terms, CHF, EUR and JPY are the most important contributors to the system, while the authors emphasize that the role of being a transmitter or a receiver varies for pairwise interactions and time windows.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that looks upon the connectivity vis-á-vis uncertainty, asymmetry and fat tails in currency futures within a dynamic Bayesian paradigm. The authors extend the current literature by proposing new insights into asset distributions.

The Logistics Performance Index (LPI), published by the World Bank, is a key measure of national-level logistics performance. It comprises six indicators: customs, infrastructure, international shipments, service quality, timeliness, and tracking and tracing. The objective of this study is to explore temporal dependencies among the six LPI indicators while operationalizing the World Bank’s LPI framework in terms of mapping the input indicators (customs, infrastructure, and service quality) to the outcome indicators (international shipments representing cost, timeliness, and tracking and tracing representing reliability).

A Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)-based methodology was adopted to effectively map temporal dependencies among variables in a probabilistic network setting. Using forward and backward propagation features of BBN inferencing, critical variables were also identified. A BBN model was developed using the World Bank’s LPI datasets for 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2023, covering the six LPI indicators for 118 countries.

The prediction accuracy of the model is 88.1%. Strong dependencies are found across the six LPI indicators over time. The forward propagation analysis of the model reveals that “logistics competence and quality” is the most critical input indicator that can influence all three outcome indicators over time. The backward propagation analysis indicates that “customs” is the most critical indicator for improving the performance on the “international shipments” indicator, whereas “logistics competence and quality” can significantly improve the performance on the “timeliness” and “tracking and tracing” indicators. The sensitivity analysis of the model reveals that “logistics competence and quality” and “infrastructure” are the key indicators that can influence the results across the three outcome indicators. These findings provide useful insights to researchers regarding the importance of exploring the temporal modeling of dependencies among the LPI indicators. Moreover, policymakers can use these findings to help their countries target specific input indicators to improve country-level logistics performance.

This paper contributes to the literature on logistics management by exploring the temporal dependencies among the six LPI indicators for 118 countries over the last 14 years. Moreover, this paper proposes and operationalizes a data-driven BBN modeling approach in this unique context.

This paper aims to capture the complex interdependences between supply chain disruptions (SCDs), SC risk mitigation strategies and firm performance in the context of disruptive events to enhance resilience for medium-sized and large firms coping with complex supply chain networks. The roles of digitalization, insurance and government support have also been addressed as potential strategies to counteract the impacts of disruptions on supply chains.

This study is based on an empirical investigation in an FMCG company – using a hybrid causal mapping technique based on the frameworks of interpretive structural modeling (ISM) and Bayesian networks (BN) – of 11 levels of relationships between SCDs (in supply, production, logistics, demand and finance), SC risk mitigation strategies (flexibility, efficiency, agility and responsiveness), insurance, government support, information and knowledge sharing, digitalization and finally the key firm performance measures (continuity, quality and financial performance).

The results of the empirical investigation reveal and describe: (1) the nature and probabilistic quantification of the lower-level relationships among the four SCDs, among the mitigation strategies and the three firm performance measures; (2) the nature and probabilistic quantification of the higher-level relationships among the impacts of SCDs, SC risk mitigation strategies and firm performance and (3) how to model and quantify the complex interdependences in single firms and their supply chains.

Our results can support managers in developing more effective decision-making models to assess and manage unfavorable events and cascade effects among different functions and processes in the context of risks and disruptions.

In recent years, there has been a growing emphasis on competency-based systems as a means of assessing employee performance. These systems assess the degree to which the competencies of employees align with the requirements of their employment positions. This study aims to identify, prioritize, and make contextual interrelationships of the competency dimensions that are relevant for evaluating employees in the context of Indian manufacturing MSMEs.

These dimensions were identified through an extensive literature review and interviews with industry experts. Further, a mixed-methods approach, including the “Bayesian Best-Worst Method” (BBWM), is applied for prioritizing important dimensions, whereas for making mutual relationships, the “Interpretive Structural Modeling” (ISM) method is utilized. “Matrice d'impacts croisés multiplication appliquée á un classment” (MICMAC) is also known as “cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to classification” is used for clustering competency dimensions based on their “driving power” and “dependence power”.

The findings reveal that among the primary dimensions, “creative performance,” and among the sub-dimensions, “innovative behaviors,” are the most critical competency dimensions for an employee assessment. The study also found that “smart working”, “factual and theoretical knowledge”, “empathy at work”, “understanding of specific knowledge”, and “engagement ideas and activities” are the main dimensions driving employees' competency.

This paper provides contribution to the competence literature by identifying and evaluating competency dimensions for assessing employees' performance within manufacturing MSMEs in an emerging economy such as India. The study also assesses the rank and contextual relationship between the identified dimensions as no past research focused on the same by using BBWM and ISM in the Indian manufacturing MSMEs context.

This study aims to price the risk contribution of general Takaful at the level of tariff cells, considering a spatial dependency framework.

Three different models, including a generalized linear model, a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) and a spatial generalized linear mixed model (SGLMM), according to the actuarial modeling of general Takaful, are used to price pure risk contribution (PRC).

The results reveal that the SGLMM yields more accurate predictions of the PRC compared to the other models, emphasizing the significance of spatial modeling in this context. Following the estimation of the PRC, the gross contribution according to the mechanism of Takaful models is calculated considering the spatial model.

Considering the similarities between Takaful and insurance, this study addresses the pricing of general Takaful within different Takaful models through a spatial dependency framework, such that the practical implications of the study are applicable for running Takaful's business in both Islamic and non-Islamic countries.

Most studies consider only the social or practical view of Takaful. This study contributes to the broader knowledge and understanding of Takaful by presenting a conceptual understanding of Takaful and then investigates the practical application of pricing risk contribution using innovative modeling of claim frequency and severity at the level of tariff cells.

Steam explosions are a major safety concern in many modern furnaces. The explosions are sometimes caused by water ingress into the furnace from leaks in its high-pressure (HP) cooling water system, coming into contact with molten matte. To address such safety issues related to steam explosions, risk based inspection (RBI) is suggested in this paper. RBI is presently one of the best-practice methodologies to provide an inspection schedule and ensure the mechanical integrity of pressure vessels. The application of RBIs on furnace HP cooling systems in this work is performed by incorporating the proportional hazards model (PHM) with the RBI approach; the PHM uses real-time condition data to allow dynamic decision-making on inspection and maintenance planning.

To accomplish this, a case study is presented that applies an HP cooling system data with moisture and cumulated feed rate as covariates or condition indicators to compute the probability of failure and the consequence of failure (CoF), which is modelled based on the boiling liquid-expanding vapour explosion (BLEVE) theory.

The benefit of this approach is that the risk assessment introduces real-time condition data in addition to time-based failure information to allow improved dynamic decision-making for inspection and maintenance planning of the HP cooling system. The work presented here comprises the application of the newly proposed methodology in the context of pressure vessels, considering the important challenge of possible explosion accidents due to BLEVE as the CoF calculations.

This paper however aims to optimise the inspection schedule on the HP cooling system, by incorporating PHM into the RBI methodology, as was recently proposed in the literature by Lelo et al. (2022). Moisture and cumulated feed rate are used as covariate. At the end, risk mitigation policy is suggested.

In this paper, the proposed methodology yields a dynamically calculated quantified risk, which emphasised the imperative for mitigating the risk, as well as presents a number of mitigation options, to quantifiably affect such mitigation.