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The need for infrastructure is growing as urbanization picks up speed, and the infrastructure REITs financing model has been crucial in reviving the vast infrastructure stock, alleviating the pressure on government funds and diversifying investment entities. This study aims to propose a framework to better assess the risks of infrastructure REITs, which can serve for the researchers and the policy makers to propose risk mitigation strategies and policy recommendations more purposively to facilitate successful implementation and long-term development of infrastructure REITs.

The infrastructure REITs risk evaluation index system is established through literature review and factor analysis, and the optimal comprehensive weight of the index is calculated using the combination weight. Then, a risk evaluation cloud model of infrastructure REITs is constructed, and experts quantify the qualitative language of infrastructure REITs risks. This paper verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the model by taking a basic REITs project in China as an example. This paper takes infrastructure REITs project in China as an example, to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the cloud evaluation method.

The research outcome shows that infrastructure REITs risks manifest in the risk of policy and legal, underlying asset, market, operational and credit. The main influencing factors in terms of their weights are tax policy risk, operation and management risk, liquidity risk, termination risk and default risk. The financing project is at a higher risk, and the probability of risk is 64.2%.

This research contributes to the existing body of knowledge by supplementing a set of scientific and practical risk evaluation methods to assess the potential risks of infrastructure REITs project, which contributes the infrastructure financing risk management system. Identify key risk factors for infrastructure REITs with underlying assets, which contributes to infrastructure REITs project management. This research can help relevant stakeholders to control risks throughout the infrastructure investment and financing life cycle, provide them with reference for investment and financing decision-making and promote more sustainable and healthy development of infrastructure REITs in developing countries.

This study’s purpose is to analyze the effects of trade interventions and non-tariff impediments between the exporters (the United States and Brazil) and China for soybean trade.

A spatial model is developed and solved using an optimized Monte Carlo simulation (OMCS) and is used to minimize the costs of supplying soybeans to China. The costs included the origin basis; transportation to ports, including trucks, railways and barges; demurrage; and ocean freight. The sum of these charges determines the delivered costs to China from each origin. Most variables are random and correlated. Time-series distributions are based on historical data. Production and exports are highly seasonal and important.

Base-case flows are highly seasonal, are risky and reflect actual trade. Sensitivities illustrate the effects of mitigating the quality differentials and interpreting a term of the Phase One agreement that purchases would be made so long as the prices are competitive. The results are also used to illustrate the influence of diversifying from the United States as a supplier. Finally, the policy implications are discussed.

Removing the quality discounts for US soybeans raises the US market share by 9%. These results also illustrate that diversification of supply sources is important for the importing country. Indeed, if China were to pursue less diversification import costs and/or risks would escalate. Hence, these results suggest that diversification is an appealing element of an import strategy. The results suggest a large distribution of prices and costs, particularly in Brazil. On average, the United States is most likely to be competitive for only a few months of the year, and the results are highly seasonal.

Competition in supplying soybean to China is extremely competitive and the underlying factors impacting spatial competition are risk, correlated and spatially dependent. In addition to these, there are quality differences, and there are trade policies and strategies that affect competition. The empirical model and results illustrate the intensity of competition in this market as well the impacts of these non-tariff barriers and trade strategies in this market.

Important policies have been taken and continue to be under review regarding competition and trade among these countries. These results illustrate the impacts of these policies on market shares and competition.

This problem is important to the world soybean trading sector, and the methodology captures important seasonal and random variables that affect trade flows. The OMCS model is appropriate for this problem and has only been used minimally in the recent literature about commodity trade.

This paper aims to improve the delimitation of plant growth stages in the context of weather index insurance design. We propose a data-driven phase division that minimizes estimation errors in the weather-yield relationship and investigate whether it can substitute an expert-based determination of plant growth phases. We combine this procedure with various statistical and machine learning estimation methods and compare their performance.

Using the example of winter barley, we divide the complete growth cycle into four sub-phases based on phenology reports and expert instructions and evaluate all combinations of start and end points of the various growth stages by their estimation errors of the respective yield models. Some of the most commonly used statistical and machine learning methods are employed to model the weather-yield relationship with each selected method we applied.

Our results confirm that the fit of crop-yield models can be improved by disaggregation of the vegetation period. Moreover, we find that the data-driven approach leads to similar division points as the expert-based approach. Regarding the statistical model, in terms of yield model prediction accuracy, Support Vector Machine ranks first and Polynomial Regression last; however, the performance across different methods exhibits only minor differences.

This research addresses the challenge of separating plant growth stages when phenology information is unavailable. Moreover, it evaluates the performance of statistical and machine learning methods in the context of crop yield prediction. The suggested phase-division in conjunction with advanced statistical methods offers promising avenues for improving weather index insurance design.

This study establishes an ontology-based framework for rework risk identification (RRI) by integrating heterogeneous data from the information flow of the prefabricated construction (PC) process. The main objective is to enhance the automation level of rework management and reduce the degree of reliance on human factors and manual operations.

The proposed framework comprises four levels aimed at managing dispersed rework risk knowledge and integrating heterogeneous data. The functionalities were realised through an integrated ontology that aligned the rework risk ontology with the PC ontology. The ontologies were developed and edited with Protégé. Ultimately, the potential benefit of the framework was validated through a case study and an expert questionnaire survey.

The framework is proven to effectively manage rework risk knowledge and can identify risk objects, clarify risk factors, determine risk events, and retrieve risk measures, thereby enabling the pre-identification of prefabricated rework risk (PRR) and improving the automation level. This study is meaningful and lays the foundation for the application of other computer methods in rework management research and practice in the future.

This research provides insights into the application of ontology to solve rework risk issues in the PC process and introduces a novel risk management method for future prefabricated project research and practice. The findings have significant theoretical value in terms of enriching the methods of risk assessment and control and the information management system of prefabricated projects.

In the evolution process of building construction accidents, there are key nodes of risk change. This paper aims to quickly identify the key nodes and quantitatively assess the node risk. Furthermore, it is essential to propose risk accumulation assessment method of building construction.

Authors analyzed 419 accidents investigation reports on building construction. In total, 39 risk factors were identified by accidents analysis. These risk factors were combined with 245 risk evolution chains. Based on those, Gephi software was used to draw the risk evolution network model for building construction. Topological parameters were applied to interpret the risk evolution network characteristic.

Combining complex network with risk matrix, the standard of quantitative classification of node risk level is formulated. After quantitative analysis of node risk, 7 items of medium-risk node, 3 items of high-risk node and 2 items of higher-risk nodes are determined. The application results show that the system risk of the project is 44.67%, which is the high risk level. It can reflect the actual safety conditions of the project in a more comprehensive way.

This paper determined the level of node risk only using the node degree and risk matrix. In future research, more node topological parameters that could be applied to node risk, such as clustering coefficients, mesoscopic numbers, centrality, PageRank, etc.

This article can quantitatively assess the risk accumulation of building construction. It would help safety managers could clarify the system risk status. Moreover, it also contributes to reveal the correspondence between risk accumulation and accident evolution.

This study comprehensively considers the likelihood, consequences and correlation to assess node risk. Based on this, single-node risk and system risk assessment methods of building construction systems were proposed. It provided a promising method and idea for the risk accumulation assessment method of building construction. Moreover, evolution process of node risk is explained from the perspective of risk accumulation.

Healthcare property has become an important alternate property sector in recent years for many international institutional investors. The purpose of this paper is to assess the risk-adjusted performance, portfolio diversification benefits and performance dynamics of French healthcare property in a French property portfolio and mixed-asset portfolio over 1999–2020. French healthcare property is seen to have different performance dynamics to the traditional French property sectors of office, retail and industrial property. Drivers and risk factors for the ongoing development of the direct healthcare property sector in France are also identified, as well as the strategic property investment implications for institutional investors.

Using annual total returns, the risk-adjusted performance, portfolio diversification benefits and performance dynamics of French direct healthcare property over 1999–2020 are assessed. Asset allocation diagrams are used to assess the role of direct healthcare property in a French property portfolio and in a French mixed-asset portfolio. The role of specific drivers for French healthcare property performance is also assessed. Robustness checks are also done to assess the potential impact of COVID-19 on the performance of French healthcare property.

French healthcare property is shown to have different performance dynamics to the traditional French property sectors of office, retail and industrial property. French direct healthcare property delivered strong risk-adjusted returns compared to French stocks, listed healthcare and listed property over 1999–2020, only exceeded by direct property. Portfolio diversification benefits in the fuller mixed-asset portfolio context were also evident, but to a much lesser extent in a narrower property portfolio context. Importantly, this sees French direct healthcare property as strongly contributing to the French property and mixed-asset portfolios across the entire portfolio risk spectrum and validating the property industry perspective of healthcare property being low risk and providing diversification benefits in a mixed-asset portfolio. However, this was to some degree to the loss or substitution of traditional direct property exposure via this replacement effect. French direct healthcare property and listed healthcare are clearly shown to be different channels in delivering different aspects of French healthcare performance to investors. Drivers of French healthcare property performance are also shown to be both economic and healthcare-specific factors. The performance of French healthcare property is also shown to be different to that seen for healthcare property in the UK and Australia. During COVID-19, French healthcare property was able to show more resilience than French office and retail property.

Healthcare property is an alternate property sector that has become increasingly important in recent years. The results highlight the important role of direct healthcare property in a French property portfolio and in a French mixed-asset portfolio, with French healthcare property having different investment dynamics to the other traditional French property sectors. The strong risk-adjusted performance of French direct healthcare property compared to French stocks, listed healthcare and listed property sees French direct healthcare property contributing to the mixed-asset portfolio across the entire portfolio risk spectrum. French healthcare property’s resilience during COVID-19 was also an attractive investment feature. This is particularly important, as many institutional investors now see healthcare property as an important property sector in their overall portfolio; particularly with the ageing population dynamics in most countries and the need for effective social infrastructure. The importance of French direct healthcare property sees direct healthcare property exposure accessible to investors as an important alternate real estate sector for their portfolios going forward via both non-listed healthcare property funds and the further future establishment of more healthcare REITs to accommodate both large and small institutional investors respectively. The resilience of French healthcare property during COVID-19 is also an attractive feature for future-proofing an investor’s portfolio.

This paper is the first published empirical research analysis of the risk-adjusted performance, diversification benefits and performance dynamics of French direct healthcare property, and the role of direct healthcare property in a French property portfolio and in a French mixed-asset portfolio. This research enables empirically validated, more informed and practical property investment decision-making regarding the strategic role of French direct healthcare property in a portfolio; particularly where the strategic role of direct healthcare property in France is seen to be different to that in the UK and Australia via portfolio replacement effects. Clear evidence is also seen of the drivers of French healthcare property performance being strongly influenced by healthcare-specific factors, as well as economic factors.

This study investigates whether the skilled minority of active equity managers in emerging markets can be identified using a machine learning (ML) framework that incorporates a large set of performance characteristics.

The study uses a cross-section of South African active equity managers from January 2002 to December 2021. The performance characteristics are analysed using ML models, with a particular focus on gradient boosters, and naïve selection techniques such as momentum and style alpha. The out-of-sample nominal, excess and risk-adjusted returns are evaluated, and precision tests are conducted to assess the accuracy of the performance predictions.

A minority of active managers exhibit skill that results in generating alpha, even after accounting for fees, and show that ML models, particularly gradient boosters, are superior at identifying non-linearities. LightGBM (LG) achieves the highest out-of-sample nominal, excess and risk-adjusted return and proves to be the most accurate predictor of performance in precision tests. Naïve selection techniques, such as momentum and style alpha, outperform most ML models in forecasting emerging market active manager performance.

The authors contribute to the literature by demonstrating that a ML approach that incorporates a large set of performance characteristics can be used to identify skilled active equity managers in emerging markets. The findings suggest that both ML models and naïve selection techniques can be used to predict performance, but the former is more accurate in predicting ex ante performance. This study has practical implications for investment practitioners and academics interested in active asset manager performance in emerging markets.

The primary purpose is to empower financial institutions in AI integration decisions. By combining QSFS and the Golden Cut technique, the study establishes a robust foundation for assessing AI progress effects, aligning implementation with performance goals, and promoting technical innovation. Dimensions explored include AI-related workforce competency, technological adaption, and ethical AI practices, crucial components within the BSC framework for technological innovation.

This study employs a distinctive approach, integrating the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) framework with Quantum Spherical Fuzzy Sets (QSFS) and the Golden Cut approach to explore the dynamic landscape of AI deployment. The integration addresses uncertainties, enhancing impact assessment accuracy amid ambiguity associated with AI outcomes. QSFS and the Golden Cut technique together facilitate precise identification of thresholds and crucial values.

The research delves into the intricate relationship between enduring financial stability and AI progress, recognizing technology's crucial influence on financial decision-making. Findings underscore technology's significant impact on financial institutions' AI integration decisions. This novel approach provides a strong quantitative basis, offering insights into workforce competency, technological adaption, and ethical AI practices.

Despite valuable contributions, the study acknowledges limitations, such as potential biases and generalizability concerns, emphasizing the need for cautious interpretation and suggesting future research directions. Recognizing the research's boundaries and complexities in studying AI deployment in financial institutions underscores the need for ongoing exploration.

The research's originality lies in presenting an innovative methodology, integrating BSC, QSFS, and the Golden Cut, providing a unique perspective for decision-making. Contributions extend beyond academia, offering practical insights to enhance AI strategic implementation in the financial industry. This novel approach enriches the technology and finance discourse, fostering theoretical and practical advancements.

The purpose of this study is to extend the Fraud Diamond Theory to celebrity Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs) and investigate their post-Initial Public Offering (IPO) stock market performance.

After obtaining a sample of celebrity SPACs from the Spacresearch.com database, fraud risk characteristics were obtained from Lexis Nexus searches. Buy and hold abnormal returns were calculated for celebrity SPACs versus a small-cap equity benchmark for time intervals after IPO, and multiple regression analysis was performed to examine the relationship between fraud risk features and post-IPO returns.

Celebrity SPACs exhibit Fraud Diamond characteristics and significantly underperform a small-cap stock portfolio on a risk-adjusted basis after IPO.

This study only examines celebrity SPACs that conducted IPOs on the NYSE and NASDAQ/AMEX and does not include those that are traded on the Over the Counter Bulletin Board (OTCBB).

Celebrity endorsement of SPAC vehicles attracts investors who may not be properly informed regarding the risk characteristics of SPACs. Accordingly, investors should be warned that celebrity SPACs underperform a small-cap equity portfolio and exhibit significant elements of fraud risk.

The use of celebrity endorsement as a marketing device to attract investment in SPACs has regulatory implications.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper is the first to examine the fraud risk characteristics and post-IPO performance of celebrity SPACs.

This paper aims to explore the impact of cycle superposition on bank liquidity risk under different levels of financial openness so that banks can better manage their liquidity risk. Meanwhile, it can also provide some ideas for banks in other emerging economies to better cope with the shocks of the global financial cycle.

Employing the monthly data of 16 commercial banks in China from 2005 to 2021 and based on the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model with stochastic volatility (TVP-SV-VAR) model, the authors first examine whether the cycle superposition can magnify the impact of China's financial cycle on bank liquidity risk. Subsequently, the authors investigate the impact of different levels of financial openness on cycle superposition amplification. Finally, the shock of the financial cycle of the world's major economies on the liquidity risk of Chinese banks is also empirically analyzed.

Cycle superposition can magnify the impact of China's financial cycle on bank liquidity risk. However, there are significant differences under different levels of financial openness. Compared with low financial openness, in the period of high financial openness, the magnifying effect of cycle superposition is strengthened in the short term but obviously weakened in the long run. In addition, the authors' findings also demonstrate that although the United States is the main shock country, the influence of other developed economies, such as Japan and Eurozone countries, cannot be ignored.

Firstly, the cycle superposition index is constructed. Secondly, the authors supplement the literature by providing evidence that the association between cycle superposition and bank liquidity risk also depends on financial openness. Finally, the dominant countries of the global financial cycle have been rejudged.