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1 – 10 of 231Paravee Maneejuk, Binxiong Zou and Woraphon Yamaka
The primary objective of this study is to investigate whether the inclusion of convertible bond prices as important inputs into artificial neural networks can lead to improved…
Abstract
Purpose
The primary objective of this study is to investigate whether the inclusion of convertible bond prices as important inputs into artificial neural networks can lead to improved accuracy in predicting Chinese stock prices. This novel approach aims to uncover the latent potential inherent in convertible bond dynamics, ultimately resulting in enhanced precision when forecasting stock prices.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employed two machine learning models, namely the backpropagation neural network (BPNN) model and the extreme learning machine neural networks (ELMNN) model, on empirical Chinese financial time series data.
Findings
The results showed that the convertible bond price had a strong predictive power for low-market-value stocks but not for high-market-value stocks. The BPNN algorithm performed better than the ELMNN algorithm in predicting stock prices using the convertible bond price as an input indicator for low-market-value stocks. In contrast, ELMNN showed a significant decrease in prediction accuracy when the convertible bond price was added.
Originality/value
This study represents the initial endeavor to integrate convertible bond data into both the BPNN model and the ELMNN model for the purpose of predicting Chinese stock prices.
Details
Keywords
Abdelhadi Ifleh and Mounime El Kabbouri
The prediction of stock market (SM) indices is a fascinating task. An in-depth analysis in this field can provide valuable information to investors, traders and policy makers in…
Abstract
Purpose
The prediction of stock market (SM) indices is a fascinating task. An in-depth analysis in this field can provide valuable information to investors, traders and policy makers in attractive SMs. This article aims to apply a correlation feature selection model to identify important technical indicators (TIs), which are combined with multiple deep learning (DL) algorithms for forecasting SM indices.
Design/methodology/approach
The methodology involves using a correlation feature selection model to select the most relevant features. These features are then used to predict the fluctuations of six markets using various DL algorithms, and the results are compared with predictions made using all features by using a range of performance measures.
Findings
The experimental results show that the combination of TIs selected through correlation and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) provides good results in the MADEX market. The combination of selected indicators and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) in the NASDAQ 100 market outperforms all other combinations of variables and models. In other markets, the combination of all variables with ANN provides the best results.
Originality/value
This article makes several significant contributions, including the use of a correlation feature selection model to select pertinent variables, comparison between multiple DL algorithms (ANN, CNN and Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM)), combining selected variables with algorithms to improve predictions, evaluation of the suggested model on six datasets (MASI, MADEX, FTSE 100, SP500, NASDAQ 100 and EGX 30) and application of various performance measures (Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE), Mean Squared Logarithmic Error (MSLE) and Root Mean Squared Logarithmic Error (RMSLE)).
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Sadia Samar Ali, Rajbir Kaur and Jose Antonio Marmolejo Saucedo