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Article
Publication date: 12 August 2024

Alain Wouassom

After considering the price reversal among countries' indices as a global, coordinated and generalized phenomenon, this paper aims to examine the profitability of the reversal…

Abstract

Purpose

After considering the price reversal among countries' indices as a global, coordinated and generalized phenomenon, this paper aims to examine the profitability of the reversal strategy internationally and find an economically essential and predictive reversal effect. Indices' portfolios form based on the prior 48 months; prior losers outperform prior winners by 8.86% per year during the subsequent 48 months. Interestingly, the reversal effect is substantially stronger for emerging countries, yielding 14.04% annually. It remains profitable post-globalization, countering the concern of whether the integration of equity markets synchronized the price reversal worldwide. Returns' differences consistent with portfolio formation approaches are also observed.

Design/methodology/approach

This study follows the methodology De Bondt and Thaler (1985) set out and uses the same methodological framework Wouassom et al. (2022) put forward. Nevertheless, this study does not focus on stocks. Still, it employs global equity indices from the viewpoint of an international investor who can switch between worldwide equity indices using a contrarian trading strategy.

Findings

My findings indicate that reversal strategies with overlapping portfolios are profitable over the entire sample period and every formation and holding period. These returns are highly statistically significant and vary considerably from one horizon to another. More importantly, the reversal strategies remain, on average, profitable and significant in the period post-1994 but are not particularly distinctive, which implies that the reversal effect survives the globalization impact and indicates that the integration of equity markets together with the international correlation among markets do not synchronize the prices reversal effect around the world given that.

Research limitations/implications

Further work would be recommended to study a more extended period dating back to the nineteenth century or the Victorian Era, characterised by rapid economic development in almost every domain, to verify if reversal is historically compensation for carrying risks exclusively during contraction.

Practical implications

My analysis takes on particular significance given the association between lagged market movement in share prices and investors’ optimism that appears among traders, generating an increasing reversal effect (Siganos and Chelley-Steley, 2006) and has direct implications for predicting and controlling trading costs associated with asset allocation strategies.

Social implications

The difficulty with using the reversal strategy to uncover the long-term return reversal effects in the equity markets today resides in the fact that the globalization of the economy has fuelled the concentration of assets within institutional investors. The critical insight is that the concentration of equity in the hands of institutional investors activated international equity trading. These institutional investors seek to maximize their shareholder value from the opportunity by simultaneously dealing in many markets while constructing and holding portfolios that include assets from various countries using highly profitable investment strategies such as reversal.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to show an easily implemented contrarian strategy that switches back and forth between country indices and generates extraordinarily high abnormal returns of more than 8.86% per annum. We also show that these returns compensate for global risks and for investors ready to take them during contraction.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 January 2023

Guoli Wang and Chenxin Ma

Motivated by the wide application of procurement strategies in retailing, this paper aims to examine the effect of procurement strategies on decisions and profits and strategic…

Abstract

Purpose

Motivated by the wide application of procurement strategies in retailing, this paper aims to examine the effect of procurement strategies on decisions and profits and strategic inventory (SI) is considered.

Design/methodology/approach

The game-theoretic models are developed under a two-period fresh product supply chain (FSC), and consist of the mode of purchasing products only in the first period without SI (Scenario S), the mode of purchasing products in every period without SI (Scenario T) and the mode of purchasing products in every period with SI (Scenario TS).

Findings

Conducting the calculating and comparing, some major findings can be concluded. In general, two-period purchasing strategies (Scenarios T and TS) promote a higher freshness-keeping effort than the single buying strategy (Scenario S). Regarding the pricing strategy, SI and Scenario S can both contribute to obtaining a lower wholesale price, the retailer's pricing is relatively complicated and hinges on the consumer's sensitivity to freshness-keeping effort and the holding cost. Besides, comparing the sales quantity and the profit, the authors find that Scenario TS stimulates more demands and brings more profits for the manufacturer. However, Scenario TS is not the optimal selection for the reason that SI sometimes hurts the retailer and even the whole supply chain. Whereas, when the holding cost is in a certain range, Scenario TS will lead to a win-win situation.

Originality/value

The main findings of this study can give the enterprises some advice on the procurement strategies of fresh products and the decisions of pricing and the freshness-keeping effort.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 53 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 December 2023

Ajay Bhootra

Investors are inattentive to continuous information as opposed to discrete information, resulting in underreaction to continuous information. This paper aims to examine if the…

Abstract

Purpose

Investors are inattentive to continuous information as opposed to discrete information, resulting in underreaction to continuous information. This paper aims to examine if the well-documented return predictability of the strategies based on the ratio of short-term to long-term moving averages can be enhanced by conditioning on information discreteness. Anchoring bias has been the popular explanation for the source of underreaction in the context of moving averages-based strategies. This paper proposes and studies another possible source based on investor inattention that can potentially result in superior performance of these strategies.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses portfolio sorting as well as Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions. For examining the role of information discreteness in the return predictability of the moving average ratio, the sample stocks are double-sorted based on the moving average ratio and information discreteness measure. The returns to these portfolios are computed using standard approaches in the literature. The regression approach controls for various well-known return predictors.

Findings

This study finds that the equally-weighted monthly returns to the long-short moving average ratio quintile portfolios increase monotonically from 0.54% for the discrete information portfolio to 1.37% for the continuous information portfolio over the 3-month holding period. This study observes a similar pattern in risk-adjusted returns, value-weighted portfolios, non-January returns, large and small stocks, for alternative holding periods and the ratio of 50-day to 200-day moving average. The results are robust to control for well-known return predictors in cross-sectional regressions.

Research limitations/implications

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to document the significant role of investor inattention to continuous information in the return predictability of strategies based on the moving average ratios. There are many underreaction anomalies that have been reported in the literature, and the paper's results can be extended to those anomalies in subsequent research.

Practical implications

The findings of this paper have important practical implications. Strategies based on moving averages are an extremely popular component of a technical analyst's toolkit. Their profitability has been well-documented in the prior literature that attributes the performance to investors' anchoring bias. This paper offers a readily implementable approach to enhancing the performance of these strategies by conditioning on a straightforward measure of information discreteness. In doing so, this study extends the literature on the role of investor inattention to continuous information in anomaly profits.

Originality/value

While there is considerable literature on technical analysis, and especially on the performance of moving averages-based strategies, the novelty of this paper is the analysis of the role of information discreteness in strategy performance. Not only does the paper document robust evidence, but the findings suggest that the investor’s inattention to continuous information is a more dominant source of underreaction compared to anchoring. This is an important result, given that anchoring has so far been considered the source of return predictability in the literature.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 50 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 July 2024

Valeriy Zakamulin

In this paper, we provide new evidence to strengthen the stock market overreaction hypothesis by examining a new context that has not been explored before. Our research is…

Abstract

Purpose

In this paper, we provide new evidence to strengthen the stock market overreaction hypothesis by examining a new context that has not been explored before. Our research is inspired by the widely held belief that investor sentiment experiences abrupt changes from optimism to pessimism as the market switches between bull and bear states.

Design/methodology/approach

If the stock market overreaction hypothesis is correct, it implies that investors are inclined to become excessively optimistic during bull markets and overly pessimistic during bear markets, resulting in overreaction and subsequent market correction. Consequently, the study first develops two testable hypotheses that can be used to uncover the presence of stock market overreaction with subsequent correction. These hypotheses are then tested using long-term data from the US market.

Findings

The study's findings support the hypothesis while also revealing a significant asymmetry in investor overreaction between bull and bear markets. Specifically, our results indicate that investors tend to overreact towards the end of a bear market, and the subsequent bull market starts with a prompt and robust correction. Conversely, investors appear to overreact only towards the end of a prolonged bull market. The correction during a bear market is not confined to its initial phase but extends across its entire duration.

Research limitations/implications

Our study has some limitations related to its focus on investigating stock market overreaction in the US market and analyzing the pattern of mean returns during bull and bear market states. Expanding our study to different global markets would be necessary to understand whether the same stock market overreaction effect exists universally. Furthermore, exploring the relationship between volatility and overreaction during different market phases would be an exciting direction for future research, as it could provide a more complete picture of market dynamics.

Practical implications

Our study confirms the presence of the stock market overreaction effect, which contradicts the efficient market hypothesis. We have observed specific price patterns during bull and bear markets that investors can potentially exploit. However, successfully capitalizing on these patterns depends on accurately predicting the turning points between bull and bear market states.

Social implications

The results of our study have significant implications for market regulators. Stock market overreactions resulting in market corrections can severely disrupt the market, leading to significant financial losses for investors and undermining investor confidence in the overall market. Further, the existence of overreactions suggests that the stock market may not always be efficient, raising regulatory concerns. Policymakers and regulators may need to implement policies and regulations to mitigate the effects of overreactions and subsequent market corrections.

Originality/value

This paper aims to provide additional support for the stock market overreaction hypothesis using a new setting in which this hypothesis has not been previously investigated.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 March 2024

Peter Papadakos

The intent of this Practice Briefing is to provide clarity on drivers of property pricing in a changing economic environment. The principal basis of this analysis is to…

Abstract

Purpose

The intent of this Practice Briefing is to provide clarity on drivers of property pricing in a changing economic environment. The principal basis of this analysis is to investigate how properties have been priced relative to interest rates over the long haul. Such an insight may help investors navigate the world of property investment in a post zero interest-rate policy (ZIRP) world.

Design/methodology/approach

This practice briefing is an overview of the role of economic drivers in pricing property in different economic eras pre- and post-ZIRP. It looks at returns over time relative to risk criteria and growth.

Findings

This briefing is a review of property pricing and its relationship to economic drivers and discusses the concept of return premiums as a market indicator to spot under/over-priced property assets in the market.

Practical implications

This briefing considers the implications of identifying salient and pertinent market indicators over time as bellweathers for property pricing. Good property investment is grounded in understanding when assets are under and overpriced relative to investors’ expectations of growth and returns going forward. An understanding of markets and the current indicators thereof can provide investors with insights into those criteria.

Originality/value

This provides guidance on how to interpret markets and get an understanding of property pricing over time.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 42 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 October 2022

Szymon Stereńczak

The positive illiquidity–return relationship (so-called liquidity premium) is a well-established pattern in international developed stock markets. The magnitude of liquidity…

1168

Abstract

Purpose

The positive illiquidity–return relationship (so-called liquidity premium) is a well-established pattern in international developed stock markets. The magnitude of liquidity premium should increase with market illiquidity. Existing studies, however, do not confirm this conjecture with regard to frontier markets. This may result from applying different approaches to the investors' holding period. The paper aims to identify the role of the holding period in shaping the illiquidity–return relationship in emerging and frontier stock markets, which are arguably considered illiquid.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors utilise the data on stocks listed on fourteen exchanges in Central and Eastern Europe. The authors regress stock returns on liquidity measures variously transformed to reflect the clientele effect in a liquidity–return relationship.

Findings

The authors show that the investors' holding period moderates the illiquidity–return relationship in CEE markets and also show that the liquidity premium in these markets is statistically and economically relevant.

Practical implications

The findings may be of great interest to investors, companies and regulators. Investors and companies should take liquidity into account when making decisions; regulators should employ liquidity-enhancing actions to decrease companies' cost of capital and expand firms' investment opportunities, which will improve growth perspectives for the entire economy.

Originality/value

These findings enrich the understanding of the role that the investors' holding period plays in the illiquidity–return relationship in CEE markets. To the best knowledge, this is the first study which investigates the effect of holding period on liquidity premium in emerging and frontier markets.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 4 April 2024

Yan He, Ruixiang Jiang, Yanchu Wang and Hongquan Zhu

We form portfolios based on return and liquidity and examine the effects of liquidity and other risk factors on asset pricing in the Chinese stock market. Our results show that…

Abstract

We form portfolios based on return and liquidity and examine the effects of liquidity and other risk factors on asset pricing in the Chinese stock market. Our results show that the past loser-and-illiquid stock portfolios tend to outperform the past winner-and-liquid stock portfolios in the 1–12 months holding period. The excess return is significantly associated with the market-wide liquidity factor even when we control the three Fama-French and momentum factors. Cross-sectionally, the liquidity beta significantly affects the excess return even with control of other risk betas and other traditional liquidity proxies.

Details

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-865-2

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 August 2024

Sanjay Sehgal, Asheesh Pandey and Swapna Sen

In the present study, we investigate whether enhanced momentum strategies outperform price momentum strategies and if they show greater resilience and stability under adverse…

Abstract

Purpose

In the present study, we investigate whether enhanced momentum strategies outperform price momentum strategies and if they show greater resilience and stability under adverse market conditions. We also examine if such strategies are explained by prominent asset pricing models or are a result of behavioral mispricing.

Design/methodology/approach

Data consist of the equity shares of all companies listed on National Stock Exchange over the study period. To check the efficacy of enhanced momentum over price momentum, six momentum strategies have been designed and their raw as well as risk-adjusted returns using multi-factor models have been observed. Behavioral mispricing has been examined by constructing an investor attention index. Finally, few robustness tests have been performed to confirm the results.

Findings

We find that an enhanced momentum strategy which combines relative and absolute strength momentum outperforms conventional price momentum strategy in India. We also demonstrate that rational pricing models are not able to explain momentum profits for any of the strategies. Finally, we observe that investor overreaction is the possible explanation of momentum profits in India. Thus, our results confirm the role of behavioral mispricing in explaining momentum returns.

Originality/value

Our research is the first major attempt to study enhanced momentum strategies in the Indian context. We experiment with several new enhanced momentum strategies which have not been explored in prior literature. The findings have strong implications for global portfolio managers who wish to design profitable trading strategies.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 August 2024

Sofien Benltoufa, Hind Algamdy, Adel Ghith, Faten Fayala and Lubos Hes

The paper aims to investigate the dynamic measurement of the water vapour resistance. The water vapour diffusion kinetics depends on the fibre’s material. So, water vapour…

Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to investigate the dynamic measurement of the water vapour resistance. The water vapour diffusion kinetics depends on the fibre’s material. So, water vapour resistance measurement times till the equilibrium steady state can vary in the case of natural fibres compared to synthetic fibres. Devices for determining water vapour resistance according to the ISO 11092 standard allow static values to be measured.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study to investigate the dynamic of the water vapour resistance, a new parameter named “holding period” was introduced and defined as the time from sample placement on the measuring head until the measuring process begins. The holding period was varied as 0, 30, 60, 90, 120, 180, 240 and 300 s. Wool and cotton knitted fabrics were tested as natural fibres and compared to 100% polyester and 90% polyester/10% elastane as synthetic fibres. Measurements were conducted under both air velocities of 1 and 2 m/s. The experimental test data were statistically analysed based on ANOVA and four-in-one residual plots.

Findings

Statistical analysis of experimental tests shows that the holding period affects water vapour resistance in both air velocities of 1 and 2 m/s and on the measured values in the case of hydrophilic fibres.

Research limitations/implications

The study of the dynamic relative water vapour permeability of natural and synthetic is an important area of interest for future research.

Practical implications

It is recommended to hold the samples on the top of the head measurement before starting the test.

Originality/value

Following the ISO 11092 standard, the static values of the water vapour resistance were measured without considering the dynamic behaviour of the water vapour diffusion through the textile fabrics. This paper fulfils an experimental dynamic measurement of the water vapour resistance.

Details

International Journal of Clothing Science and Technology, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0955-6222

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 July 2024

Manoja Behera and Jitendra Mahakud

This study aims to examine the influence of geopolitical risk (GPR) on corporate cash holdings in an emerging market, India. It also investigates whether the effect of GPR on cash…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the influence of geopolitical risk (GPR) on corporate cash holdings in an emerging market, India. It also investigates whether the effect of GPR on cash holdings varies across financially constrained and unconstrained firms, and across the different sectors.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the fixed-effect regression model to examine the effect of GPR on the corporate cash holdings of 2090 Indian firms from 2003 to 2021. To correct the potential endogeneity issue and ensure the robustness of the results, this study uses two-stage least squares regression, alternative cash holdings proxies, GPR measures and across the different periods (Global financial crisis and COVID-19).

Findings

The paper finds that GPR has a positive impact on the cash holdings of Indian firms. The authors also find that the positive relationship between GPR and cash holdings is consistent for financially constrained and unconstrained firms. Furthermore, the results also show that firms in the construction sector maintain higher cash reserves than other sectors.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is one of the first-ever studies which examines the effect of GPR on corporate cash holding for an emerging economy like India. The use of alternative measures of cash holding, GPR, and estimation methods make this study more robust.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

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