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Article
Publication date: 12 February 2024

Boyi Li, Miao Tian, Xiaohan Liu, Jun Li, Yun Su and Jiaming Ni

The purpose of this study is to predict the thermal protective performance (TPP) of flame-retardant fabric more economically using machine learning and analyze the factors…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to predict the thermal protective performance (TPP) of flame-retardant fabric more economically using machine learning and analyze the factors affecting the TPP using model visualization.

Design/methodology/approach

A total of 13 machine learning models were trained by collecting 414 datasets of typical flame-retardant fabric from current literature. The optimal performance model was used for feature importance ranking and correlation variable analysis through model visualization.

Findings

Five models with better performance were screened, all of which showed R2 greater than 0.96 and root mean squared error less than 3.0. Heat map results revealed that the TPP of fabrics differed significantly under different types of thermal exposure. The effect of fabric weight was more apparent in the flame or low thermal radiation environment. The increase in fabric weight, fabric thickness, air gap width and relative humidity of the air gap improved the TPP of the fabric.

Practical implications

The findings suggested that the visual analysis method of machine learning can intuitively understand the change trend and range of second-degree burn time under the influence of multiple variables. The established models can be used to predict the TPP of fabrics, providing a reference for researchers to carry out relevant research.

Originality/value

The findings of this study contribute directional insights for optimizing the structure of thermal protective clothing, and introduce innovative perspectives and methodologies for advancing heat transfer modeling in thermal protective clothing.

Details

International Journal of Clothing Science and Technology, vol. 36 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0955-6222

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 May 2022

Ismail Abiodun Sulaimon, Hafiz Alaka, Razak Olu-Ajayi, Mubashir Ahmad, Saheed Ajayi and Abdul Hye

Road traffic emissions are generally believed to contribute immensely to air pollution, but the effect of road traffic data sets on air quality (AQ) predictions has not been fully…

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Abstract

Purpose

Road traffic emissions are generally believed to contribute immensely to air pollution, but the effect of road traffic data sets on air quality (AQ) predictions has not been fully investigated. This paper aims to investigate the effects traffic data set have on the performance of machine learning (ML) predictive models in AQ prediction.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve this, the authors have set up an experiment with the control data set having only the AQ data set and meteorological (Met) data set, while the experimental data set is made up of the AQ data set, Met data set and traffic data set. Several ML models (such as extra trees regressor, eXtreme gradient boosting regressor, random forest regressor, K-neighbors regressor and two others) were trained, tested and compared on these individual combinations of data sets to predict the volume of PM2.5, PM10, NO2 and O3 in the atmosphere at various times of the day.

Findings

The result obtained showed that various ML algorithms react differently to the traffic data set despite generally contributing to the performance improvement of all the ML algorithms considered in this study by at least 20% and an error reduction of at least 18.97%.

Research limitations/implications

This research is limited in terms of the study area, and the result cannot be generalized outside of the UK as some of the inherent conditions may not be similar elsewhere. Additionally, only the ML algorithms commonly used in literature are considered in this research, therefore, leaving out a few other ML algorithms.

Practical implications

This study reinforces the belief that the traffic data set has a significant effect on improving the performance of air pollution ML prediction models. Hence, there is an indication that ML algorithms behave differently when trained with a form of traffic data set in the development of an AQ prediction model. This implies that developers and researchers in AQ prediction need to identify the ML algorithms that behave in their best interest before implementation.

Originality/value

The result of this study will enable researchers to focus more on algorithms of benefit when using traffic data sets in AQ prediction.

Details

Journal of Engineering, Design and Technology , vol. 22 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1726-0531

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 November 2023

Shiqin Zeng, Frederick Chung and Baabak Ashuri

Completing Right-of-Way (ROW) acquisition process on schedule is critical to avoid delays and cost overruns on transportation projects. However, transportation agencies face…

Abstract

Purpose

Completing Right-of-Way (ROW) acquisition process on schedule is critical to avoid delays and cost overruns on transportation projects. However, transportation agencies face challenges in accurately forecasting ROW acquisition timelines in the early stage of projects due to complex nature of acquisition process and limited design information. There is a need of improving accuracy of estimating ROW acquisition duration during the early phase of project development and quantitatively identifying risk factors affecting the duration.

Design/methodology/approach

The quantitative research methodology used to develop the forecasting model includes an ensemble algorithm based on decision tree and adaptive boosting techniques. A dataset of Georgia Department of Transportation projects held from 2010 to 2019 is utilized to demonstrate building the forecasting model. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is performed to identify critical drivers of ROW acquisition durations.

Findings

The forecasting model developed in this research achieves a high accuracy to predict ROW durations by explaining 74% of the variance in ROW acquisition durations using project features, which is outperforming single regression tree, multiple linear regression and support vector machine. Moreover, number of parcels, average cost estimation per parcel, length of projects, number of condemnations, number of relocations and type of work are found to be influential factors as drivers of ROW acquisition duration.

Originality/value

This research contributes to the state of knowledge in estimating ROW acquisition timeline through (1) developing a novel machine learning model to accurately estimate ROW acquisition timelines, and (2) identifying drivers (i.e. risk factors) of ROW acquisition durations. The findings of this research will provide transportation agencies with insights on how to improve practices in scheduling ROW acquisition process.

Details

Built Environment Project and Asset Management, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-124X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 May 2024

Mehmet Ali Koseoglu, Hasan Evrim Arici, Mehmet Bahri Saydam and Victor Oluwafemi Olorunsola

The interconnected challenges of climate change and social inclusivity have placed unprecedented pressure on businesses to adopt responsible practices. While previous research has…

Abstract

Purpose

The interconnected challenges of climate change and social inclusivity have placed unprecedented pressure on businesses to adopt responsible practices. While previous research has explored the individual impacts of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance and diversity initiatives, there remains a dearth of comprehensive investigations into how these factors collectively influence carbon emission scores. Drawing on the legitimacy theory, we explore whether ESG and diversity scores predict global companies' carbon emission scores. As concerns about the environmental impact of businesses grow, understanding the relationships between ESG performance, diversity management, and carbon emissions becomes imperative for sustainable corporate practices.

Design/methodology/approach

The primary dataset for this study includes 1,268 worldwide firm-year data for 2021. The sample is subjected to missing data examination as a component of the filtration process. Data preprocessing is performed before machine learning analysis, including verifying missing data. Our research resulted in the final sample, which includes 627 worldwide firm data from 2021. Data regarding all publicly traded companies was obtained from Refinitiv Eikon.

Findings

Our findings showed that corporate carbon emission performance in global corporations is influenced by ESG performance and total diversity score.

Originality/value

Firms involve in ESG as well as diversity practices to be able to achieve sustainable success. Yet, the forecasting of carbon emissions based on ESG scores and diversity scores remains inadequately established due to conflicting findings and enigmas prevalent in the literature.

Details

Management Decision, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 July 2023

Gaurav Kumar, Molla Ramizur Rahman, Abhinav Rajverma and Arun Kumar Misra

This study aims to analyse the systemic risk emitted by all publicly listed commercial banks in a key emerging economy, India.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to analyse the systemic risk emitted by all publicly listed commercial banks in a key emerging economy, India.

Design/methodology/approach

The study makes use of the Tobias and Brunnermeier (2016) estimator to quantify the systemic risk (ΔCoVaR) that banks contribute to the system. The methodology addresses a classification problem based on the probability that a particular bank will emit high systemic risk or moderate systemic risk. The study applies machine learning models such as logistic regression, random forest (RF), neural networks and gradient boosting machine (GBM) and addresses the issue of imbalanced data sets to investigate bank’s balance sheet features and bank’s stock features which may potentially determine the factors of systemic risk emission.

Findings

The study reports that across various performance matrices, the authors find that two specifications are preferred: RF and GBM. The study identifies lag of the estimator of systemic risk, stock beta, stock volatility and return on equity as important features to explain emission of systemic risk.

Practical implications

The findings will help banks and regulators with the key features that can be used to formulate the policy decisions.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the existing literature by suggesting classification algorithms that can be used to model the probability of systemic risk emission in a classification problem setting. Further, the study identifies the features responsible for the likelihood of systemic risk.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 10 October 2023

Visar Hoxha

The purpose of the study is to examine the efficiency of linear, nonlinear and artificial neural networks (ANNs), in predicting property prices.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the study is to examine the efficiency of linear, nonlinear and artificial neural networks (ANNs), in predicting property prices.

Design/methodology/approach

The present study uses a dataset of 1,468 real estate transactions from 2020 to 2022, obtained from the Department of Property Taxes of Republic of Kosovo. Beginning with a fundamental linear regression model, the study tackles the question of overlooked nonlinearity, employing a similar strategy like Peterson and Flanagan (2009) and McCluskey et al. (2012), whereby ANN's predictions are incorporated as an additional regressor within the ordinary least squares (OLS) model.

Findings

The research findings underscore the superior fit of semi-log and double-log models over the OLS model, while the ANN model shows moderate performance, contrary to the conventional conviction of ANN's superior predictive power. This is notably divergent from the prevailing belief about ANN's superior predictive power, shedding light on the potential overestimation of ANN's efficacy.

Practical implications

The study accentuates the importance of embracing diverse models in property price prediction, debunking the notion of the ubiquitous applicability of ANN models. The research outcomes carry substantial ramifications for both scholars and professionals engaged in property valuation.

Originality/value

Distinctively, this research pioneers the comparative analysis of diverse models, including ANN, in the setting of a developing country's capital, hence providing a fresh perspective to their effectiveness in property price prediction.

Content available
Book part
Publication date: 13 May 2024

Abstract

Details

VUCA and Other Analytics in Business Resilience, Part B
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-199-8

Article
Publication date: 20 March 2024

Vinod Bhatia and K. Kalaivani

Indian railways (IR) is one of the largest railway networks in the world. As a part of its strategic development initiative, demand forecasting can be one of the indispensable…

Abstract

Purpose

Indian railways (IR) is one of the largest railway networks in the world. As a part of its strategic development initiative, demand forecasting can be one of the indispensable activities, as it may provide basic inputs for planning and control of various activities such as coach production, planning new trains, coach augmentation and quota redistribution. The purpose of this study is to suggest an approach to demand forecasting for IR management.

Design/methodology/approach

A case study is carried out, wherein several models i.e. automated autoregressive integrated moving average (auto-ARIMA), trigonometric regressors (TBATS), Holt–Winters additive model, Holt–Winters multiplicative model, simple exponential smoothing and simple moving average methods have been tested. As per requirements of IR management, the adopted research methodology is predominantly discursive, and the passenger reservation patterns over a five-year period covering a most representative train service for the past five years have been employed. The relative error matrix and the Akaike information criterion have been used to compare the performance of various models. The Diebold–Mariano test was conducted to examine the accuracy of models.

Findings

The coach production strategy has been proposed on the most suitable auto-ARIMA model. Around 6,000 railway coaches per year have been produced in the past 3 years by IR. As per the coach production plan for the year 2023–2024, a tentative 6551 coaches of various types have been planned for production. The insights gained from this paper may facilitate need-based coach manufacturing and optimum utilization of the inventory.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature on rail ticket demand forecasting and adds value to the process of rolling stock management. The proposed model can be a comprehensive decision-making tool to plan for new train services and assess the rolling stock production requirement on any railway system. The analysis may help in making demand predictions for the busy season, and the management can make important decisions about the pricing of services.

Details

foresight, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 February 2024

Elena Fedorova and Polina Iasakova

This paper aims to investigate the impact of climate change news on the dynamics of US stock indices.

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the impact of climate change news on the dynamics of US stock indices.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical basis of the study was 3,209 news articles. Sentiment analysis was performed by a pre-trained bidirectional FinBERT neural network. Thematic modeling is based on the neural network, BERTopic.

Findings

The results show that news sentiment can influence the dynamics of stock indices. In addition, five main news topics (finance and politics natural disasters and consequences industrial sector and Innovations activism and culture coronavirus pandemic) were identified, which showed a significant impact on the financial market.

Originality/value

First, we extend the theoretical concepts. This study applies signaling theory and overreaction theory to the US stock market in the context of climate change. Second, in addition to the news sentiment, the impact of major news topics on US stock market returns is examined. Third, we examine the impact of sentimental and thematic news variables on US stock market indicators of economic sectors. Previous works reveal the impact of climate change news on specific sectors of the economy. This paper includes stock indices of the economic sectors most related to the topic of climate change. Fourth, the research methodology consists of modern algorithms. An advanced textual analysis method for sentiment classification is applied: a pre-trained bidirectional FinBERT neural network. Modern thematic modeling is carried out using a model based on the neural network, BERTopic. The most extensive topics are “finance and politics of climate change” and “natural disasters and consequences.”

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 25 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 April 2024

Ioannis Vlassas, Christos Kallandranis, Antonis Ballis, Loukas Glyptis and Lan Mai Thanh

This paper aims to review the literature extensively by analysing recent work and providing a guide for models, data sets and research findings.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to review the literature extensively by analysing recent work and providing a guide for models, data sets and research findings.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper reviews the literature extensively by analysing recent work and providing a guide for models, data sets and research findings within the context of capital market imperfections. The authors further break down the literature into closer-in-nature categories for reader’s convenience and comprehension. Finally, the authors address gaps in the existing literature and propose government policies that can tone down the potential effect of credit rationing on employment.

Findings

This paper provides a map of the literature so as to help future researchers in the relevant literature and give a short insight of what has been explored so far.

Originality/value

This paper is original and is the result of a thorough review of an extensive literature.

Details

Journal of Asia Business Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1558-7894

Keywords

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