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Agriculture commodity price forecasts have long been important for a variety of market players. The study we conducted aims to address this difficulty by examining the weekly wholesale price index of green grams in the Chinese market. The index covers a ten-year period, from January 1, 2010, to January 3, 2020, and has significant economic implications.

In order to address the nonlinear patterns present in the price time series, we investigate the nonlinear auto-regressive neural network as the forecast model. This modeling technique is able to combine a variety of basic nonlinear functions to approximate more complex nonlinear characteristics. Specifically, we examine prediction performance that corresponds to several configurations across data splitting ratios, hidden neuron and delay counts, and model estimation approaches.

Our model turns out to be rather simple and yields forecasts with good stability and accuracy. Relative root mean square errors throughout training, validation and testing are specifically 4.34, 4.71 and 3.98%, respectively. The results of benchmark research show that the neural network produces statistically considerably better performance when compared to other machine learning models and classic time-series econometric methods.

Utilizing our findings as independent technical price forecasts would be one use. Alternatively, policy research and fresh insights into price patterns might be achieved by combining them with other (basic) prediction outputs.

The purpose of this study is to examine how the tourism economy affects local food availability, access, utilization and stability in dessert-prone agricultural heritage sites. Specifically, the study aims to explore the relationship between the tourism industry and local agricultural practices and how this connection influences food security in the Siwa Oasis, located in the Western Desert of Egypt.

The study employs a qualitative exploratory research design using in-depth interviews and focus groups to investigate the impact of the tourism economy on food security and identify potential benefits and limitations for food security in the region.

The research reveals that the tourism economy in Siwa Oasis has only a marginal contribution to food security. The study highlights a lack of a strong connection between the tourism industry and local agricultural practices within the heritage site. As a result, the potential benefits and synergies that could be achieved between tourism and agriculture have not been fully realized, leading to a limited impact on food stability.

This study primarily relies on qualitative data from Siwa Oasis, Egypt, which may limit the generalizability of findings beyond this specific context. Additionally, while the study provides valuable insights into the complex relationship between tourism and food security, it does not quantitatively measure the magnitude of tourism's impact. Future research could incorporate quantitative methods for a more comprehensive understanding of this relationship in diverse desert-prone regions. Finally, the study highlights the need for more integrated approaches to enhance food security through tourism, but the specific strategies and policy recommendations require further investigation and adaptation to local contexts.

This study underscores the need for tourism development strategies that prioritize food security in desert-prone areas like Siwa Oasis. Policymakers and stakeholders should promote sustainable tourism practices that enhance local agriculture, create diversified income sources and foster equitable benefits for communities. Moreover, recognizing the seasonal nature of tourism, interventions to address food shortages during off-peak periods are crucial. Efforts should also focus on skill development and gender-inclusive opportunities within the tourism sector to ensure broader community participation. Additionally, collaborations between tourism and agriculture should be encouraged to optimize food availability and stability while preserving cultural food traditions.

This study adds original insights by examining the specific impact of the tourism economy on food security in dessert-prone agricultural heritage sites. The study's originality lies in its exploration of the untapped potential for synergy between the tourism and agricultural sectors and the implications for local food security. This research contributes to understanding how tourism can improve food security in specific contexts and provides valuable insights into sustainable development in heritage sites.

Digitalisation is perceived as a new process that may add value to firms. Current theoretical understanding assumes it should be part of a firm's strategy to respond to multiple pressures in the business environment. This paper explores the occurrence of digitalisation in a rare context, that of the English agricultural industry in the United Kingdom, a place disproportionality filled with family firms. The general understanding of digitalisation in family firm settings remains embryonic. The authors' explorations make theoretical contributions to research at the intersection of rural entrepreneurship, family business and innovation.

Utilising a purposive, qualitative approach, primary data was collected from multiple interviews with 28 UK family farms, and secondary data from another 164. Interview transcripts were coded using NVivo, along with secondary data from reports, observations and websites.

The authors present empirical evidence illustrating how digitalisation manifests incrementally and radically in different types of family farms. The authors present a model that shows the areas of farming that have, and continue to be, digitalised. This increases analytical precision when identifying digitalisation activities that differ depending on the strategy to either scale or diversify. The authors propose that incremental digitalising occurs to a great extent during a scaling strategy, and that radical digitalising occurs to a smaller extent during diversification strategies in family farms.

This research uses a sample of family-run farms from the UK agricultural sector to explore nuanced elements of digitalisation. It should therefore be explored in other types of family firms located in different sectors and geographies.

This research is important because family farms are under increasing pressure and have limited financial resources to deal with the digitalisation agenda. Therefore, empirical evidence helps other farms in similar situations. The authors found digitalisation investments, that tend to be capital intensive, only matter for scalers and less so for diversifiers. Family farms can use the model presented as a tool to evaluate their farm. The tool helps them define what to do, and ideate the potential activities that might be digitalised, to feed into their wider strategy.

Family firms, in particular farms, are critical to many economies. The general consenses currently assumes all family firms should digitalise, yet the authors' evidence suggests that this is not the case. It is important to create policies that are sensitive to the needs of different types of businesses, in this case between family firm scalers and diversifiers, instead of simply incentivising digitalisation using a blanket approach usually by offering financial aid. Understanding how digitisation can support (or not) family firm resilience and growth in an effective and efficient manner can have significant benefit to individual firms, and across industries.

The proposed model extends theoretical understanding linking strategy, digitalisation activity and innovation in family farms. It shows that digitalisation is a key building block of scaling strategies, maximising digitalisation to increase efficiency. Yet, diversifying family farms minimise digitalisation, whereby they only digitalise a small amount of the farming activity. This empirical evidence contrasts with the wider narrative that farmers are slower at using new technology. This research found that some are slower because it does not align with their strategy. However, sometimes digitalisation aligns with their strategy during external changes, in which case the diversifiers are quick to act.

In this paper, we evaluated the impact of the US “Chip Act” on the participation of the Chinese electronics industry in the global value chain based on the dynamic CGE model. This is a meaningful attempt to use the GTAP-VA model to analyze the electronics industry in China.

We employ a Dynamic GTAP-VA Model to quantitatively evaluate the economic repercussions of the “Chip Act” on the Chinese electronic industries' GVC participation from 2023 to 2040.

The findings depict a discernible contraction in China’s electronic sector by 2040, marked by a −2.95% change in output, a −3.50% alteration in exports and a 0.45% increment in imports. Concurrently, the U.S., EU and certain Asian economies exhibit expansions within the electronic sector, indicating a GVC realignment. The “Chip Act” implementation precipitates a significant divergence in GVC participation across different countries and industries, notably impacting the electronics sector.

Through a meticulous temporal analysis, this manuscript unveils the nuanced economic shifts within the GVC, substantially bridging the empirical void in existing literature. This narrative accentuates the profound implications of policy regulations on global trade dynamics, contributing to the discourse on international economic policy and industry evolution.

We evaluated the impact of the US “Chip Act” on the participation of the Chinese electronics industry in the global value chain based on the dynamic CGE model. This is a meaningful attempt to use the GTAP-VA model to analyze the electronics industry in China.

The interaction between policy regulations and global value chain (GVC) dynamics is pivotal in understanding the contemporary global trade framework, especially within technology-driven sectors. The US “Chips Act” represents a significant regulatory milestone with potential ramifications on the Chinese electronic industries' engagement in the GVC.

The significance of this paper is that it quantifies for the first time the impact of the US Chip Act on the GVC participation index of East Asian countries in the context of US-China decoupling. With careful consideration of strategic aspects, this paper substantially fills the empirical gap in the existing literature by presenting subtle economic changes within GVCs, highlighting the profound implications of policy regulation on global trade dynamics.

High levels of child obesity alongside rising stunting and the absence of a coherent food policy have deemed UK’s food system to be broken. The National Food Strategy (NFS) was debated intensely in media, with discussions on how and who should fix the food system.

Using a mixed methods approach, the authors conduct framing analysis on traditional media and sentiment analysis of twitter reactions to the NFS to identify frames used to shape food system policy interventions.

The study finds evidence that the media coverage of the NFS often utilised the tropes of “culture wars” shaping the debate of who is responsible to fix the food system – the government, the public or the industry. NFS recommendations were portrayed as issues of free choice to shift the debate away from government action correcting for market failure. In contrast, the industry was showcased as equipped to intervene on its own accord. Dietary recommendations made by the NFS were depicted as hurting the poor, painting a picture of helplessness and loss of control, while their voices were omitted and not represented in traditional media.

British media’s alignment with free market economic thinking has implications for food systems reform, as it deters the government from acting and relies on the invisible hand of the market to fix the system. Media firms should move beyond tropes of culture wars to discuss interventions that reform the structural causes of the UK’s broken food systems.

As traditional media coverage struggles to capture the diversity of public perception; the authors supplement framing analysis with sentiment analysis of Twitter data. To the best of our knowledge, no such media (and social media) analysis of the NFS has been conducted. The paper is also original as it extends our understanding of how media alignment with free market economic thinking has implications for food systems reform, as it deters the government from acting and relies on the invisible hand of the market to fix the system.

This study aims to examine the phenomenon of climate variability and its implications for pastoralists and agro-pastoralists food security in Amibara and Awash Fentale districts of the Afar region, Ethiopia.

The study relied on meteorological records of temperature and rainfall in the study area between 1988 and 2018. Besides, literature on the topic was reviewed to make caveats on the literal picture that comes from quantitative data, and that is the contribution of this study to the existing debate on climate change and variability. The spatiotemporal trend was determined using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, while variability was analyzed using the coefficient of variation and standardized anomaly index, and standardized precipitation index/standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index were applied to determine the drought frequency and severity.

The result reveals that the mean seasonal rainfall varies from 111.34 mm to 518.74 mm. Although the maximum and minimum rainfall occurred in the summer and winter seasons, respectively, there has been a decrease in seasonal and annual at the rate of 2.51 mm per season and 4.12 mm per year, respectively. The study sites have been experiencing highly seasonal rainfall variability. The drought analysis result confirms that a total of nine agricultural droughts ranging from moderate to extreme years were observed. Overall, the seasonal and annual rainfall of the Amibara and Awash Fentale districts showed a decreasing trend with highly temporal variations of rainfall and ever-rising temperatures, and frequent drought events means the climate situation of the area could adversely affect pastoral and agro-pastoral households’ food security. However, analysis of data from secondary sources reveals that analyzing precipitation just based on the meteorological records of the study area would be misleading. That explains why flooding, rather than drought, is becoming the main source of catastrophe to pastoral and agro-pastoral livelihoods.

The analysis of temperature and rainfall dynamics in the Afar region, hence the inception of all development interventions, must take the hydrological impact of the neighboring regions which appears to be useful direction to future researchers.

The research is originally conducted using meteorological and existing literature, and hence, it is original. In this research, we utilized a standardized and appropriate methodology, resulting in insights that augment the existing body of knowledge within the field. These insights serve to advance scholarly discourse on the subject matter.

The paper intends to show why farms as we know them today may soon be a thing of the past and that organisational behaviour research has an important contribution to make in assisting the upcoming transformation.

Two strains of literature are reviewed and then synthesised: the literature on robots replacing humans in agricultural production and the literature on vertical integration that shifts decisions to agribusiness. Then the potential contribution of organisational behaviour research is outlined.

It is shown how the farm is likely to lose both roles for which their geographic entity is important: making decisions and carrying out production. This requires contributions from organisational behaviour research in the realms of decision designs and social systems.

It can be anticipated that the most profitable strategy for farmland owners in the future will be collaboration with contractors. Farms as organisations, are increasingly losing their importance. This not only has grave social implications for farmworkers and landowners but also for scholars in organisational behaviour research.

The paper challenges an organisational unit that is so familiar to us that it is rarely questioned.

Collaboration in agricultural value chains (AVCs) has the potential to increase smallholders’ participation in international value chains and increase their benefits from participation. This scoping review explores existing collaboration models among stakeholders of AVCs in developing countries, examines enablers and constraints of collaboration and identifies policy gaps.

We systematically searched three databases, CAB Abstracts, Econlit (EBSCO) and Agricola, for studies published between 2005 and 2023 and included 59 relevant studies on AVC collaboration.

The primary motivations for collaboration are to enhance market access and improve product quality. Key outcomes of collaboration include improvements in farmers’ welfare, market participation and increased production; only a few studies consider improved risk management as an important outcome. Robust support from government and non-governmental entities is a primary enabler of collaboration. Conversely, conflicts of interest among stakeholders and resource limitations constrain collaboration possibilities. Collaboration involving high-value crops prioritizes income increases, whereas collaboration involving staple crops focuses on improving household food security.

This study may have publication bias as unsuccessful instances of collaboration are less likely to be published.

This study is unique in highlighting collaboration models’ characteristics and identifying AVC policy and programmatic areas where private firms, farmers’ groups, local governments and donor agencies can contribute.

This study aims to address three research questions pertaining to climate neutrality within the supply chain of metal and mining industry: (1) How can an organization implement practices related to climate neutrality in the supply chain? (2) How do members of the supply chain adopt different measures and essential processes to assist an organization in responding to climate change-related concerns? (3) How can the SAP-LAP framework assist in analyzing and proposing solutions to attain climate neutrality?

To address the proposed research questions concerning climate neutrality, this study employs a case study approach utilizing the SAP-LAP (situation, actor, process–learning, action, performance) framework. Within the SAP-LAP framework, adopting a natural resource-based perspective, the study thoroughly examines the intricacies and interactions among existing situations, pertinent actors and processes that impact climate initiatives within a metal and mining company.

The study's findings suggest that organizations can achieve the objective of climate neutrality by prioritizing resources and capabilities that lead to reduced GHG emissions, lower energy consumption and optimal resource utilization. The study further proposes key elements that significantly influence the pursuit of climate neutrality within enterprises.

This study is one of the earliest contributions to the development of a holistic understanding of climate neutrality in the supply chain of the metal and mining industry.

The study will assist practitioners and policymakers in comprehending the present circumstances, actors and processes involved in enterprises' supply networks in order to attain climate neutrality in supply chains, as well as in taking the right steps to enhance performance.

This study presents a climate neutrality model and provides valuable insights into emission management, contributing to the achievement of the climate neutrality objective.