Macroeconomic Risk and Growth in the Southeast Asian Countries: Insight from Indonesia: Volume 33A

This study aimed to know the effect of cross-sectional risk, which comprises business-specific risk and stock market volatility, as a variable for estimating macroeconomic risk in Indonesia. This study observes public companies in Indonesia and Indonesian macroeconomic data from 2004 to 2020. In this study, the author uses term spread as the dependent variable that reflects macroeconomic risk. The cross-sectional risk comprises financial friction (FF), cash flow (CF), debt–service ratio, and stock market volatility as independent variables. By using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model method, this study shows that business-specific and stock market risk can estimate macroeconomic risk, so that it becomes an early signal of economic shock, such as recession or high inflation, in the future. The model in this study also examines the cross-sectional risk relationship with other macroeconomic indicators, such as the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), money supply (M0), and Indonesia’s trade balance (TB).

Indonesia is one of the largest developing countries in the world and is a profitable market for investors. Small and medium-sized businesses are one of the business activities that contribute to the improvement of the Indonesian economy. This study examines the influence of government policies on financial literacy and the impact of financial literacy on small and medium enterprises’ (SMEs) sustainability. It employs the resource-based view (RBV) and knowledge-based view (KBV) to develop conceptual models. The model is tested with data collected from 132 SMEs in Malang-East Java, Indonesia, in 2020 through a structured questionnaire. This study uses the G-Power version 3.1 software for initial analysis and the partial least square (PLS) analysis method to test this hypothesis. The results show that government policies positively affect SMEs’ sustainability, and financial literacy positively affects SMEs’ sustainability. This implies that government policy and financial literacy are essential factors for SMEs’ resources and knowledge for business sustainability.

The practice of real earnings management (REM) or earnings manipulation through the company’s real activities is increasingly widespread. Companies that want to achieve profit targets have switched from accrual-based to REM, especially in the firm family owner, who is an active manager. Our study aims to determine whether family ownership in a company will be a factor in the existence of greater REM practices. The authors collected 2,613 observational data from non-financial companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) during 2013–2018 using a purposive sampling method and then analyzed using panel random effect (RE) regression. The results show that family ownership significantly negatively affects abnormal operating cash flow which means that family firms are more likely to reduce operating cash flow to report higher income than non-family firms. Thus, it can be concluded that family firms in Indonesia are more likely to be involved in REM than non-family firms.

After the global financial crisis, many countries deregulated their banking sectors. The banking sector has become the major funding supplier in most emerging countries. Bank in Indonesia has provided an essential role as an intermediary institution in matching up surplus and deficit parties with a relatively concentrated market structure. Moreover, banks should innovate and diversify to provide excellent products and services to their customers and win the market. More diversified banks are expected to have better performance and more resilience, especially during a crisis. This study examines the relationship among bank market power, diversification, and bank stability of listed bank companies in Indonesia from 2008 to 2020. This study employs a two-step system GMM to deal with potential endogeneity. This study finds that banks’ market power and diversification affect bank stability, and the presence of crisis encourages banks to be more prudent. The result of this study provides insightful implications for academics and policy-makers.

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues have recently received much attention. This research investigates the daily performance of socially responsible investment (SRI). To do that, the authors construct portfolios consisting of the SRI, non-SRI, and matched non-SRI. The portfolios can be compared with the market benchmark based on α adjusted asset pricing models. Due to using high-frequency data, the authors use ARCH/GARCH to deal with time-varying volatility. Moreover, the authors also utilized Fama–MacBeth pooled regression to confront the SRI stocks and the non-SRI counterpart. In sum, the findings of this study confirm the superior performance of the value-weighted (VW) SRI portfolio against the market. On a head-to-head basis, the SRI yields a higher return than the non-SRI. The results are robust in the quarterly analysis. It is essential for investors that put their money in socially responsible (SR) portfolios to either promote sustainable development or chase a return on it.

This study investigates how this pandemic impacted the systemic risk in Indonesia’s Islamic commercial banks (ICBs) and conventional commercial banks (CCBs). The authors use quantitative methods, and systemic risk is measured using value at risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CoVaR). This study provides empirical evidence regarding the estimation and determination of systemic risk. By using spillover measures, the authors find a significant increase in systemic risk among the sample banks. The novelty in this research is the measurement of the level of banking risk in the dual banking system in Indonesia. This study makes profound contributions to the literature and suggests various policy recommendations, including identifying essential institutions and testing the benefits of policy responses in containing systemic risk. These findings need to be considered by the government and financial authorities in making accurate regulations and policies.

With the outbreak of COVID-19 at the beginning of 2020, many countries attempted to control the spread of the virus by implementing a lockdown policy. This study investigates the impact of the lockdown in Jakarta in 2020 on the economy. The database used the Input–Output (IO) 2015. We employed a bottom-up approach by selecting Jakarta to generate the shock on the economy since only Jakarta constantly applied the lockdown policy named Large-Scale Social Restriction (PSBB) policy in 2020. We earned some useful information on whether the shock in Jakarta significantly impacted the national economy as well as other provinces. Our empirical results revealed that the PSBB policy reduced output in Jakarta by 7.20%, value-added declined by about 8.04%, income waned by 8.08%, and labour shrank by 7.68%. We also found that national output decreased by 1.30% in other provinces, especially those depending on the agricultural sector.

This study aims to analyze factors that influence the utilization of remittances by Indonesia Migrant Workers (TKI) and to analyze the role of stakeholders in the implementation of financial inclusion. This research used a mixed method, regression analysis, and Matrix of Alliances and Conflicts: Tactics, Objectives, and Recommendations (MACTOR). This study found that the factors that influence savings are training variables, education, and a dummy variable for widow status. The results when remittance as dependent show that the regional origin, dummy variable for receiving remittances, for training, and for determining the use of remittances by TKI themselves had an effect. The implementation of financial inclusion is needed in the economic development of TKI, and the main actors are migrant workers, assistants, economists, and Bapermas. Actors who have the potential for ambivalence are workers who do not participate in mentoring and do not join BUMDes.

This study examines the role of industry competition, market capitalization, and debt levels in the relationship between profitability and firm value (FV). The sample included companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in the manufacturing sector in 2017–2019. This study provides empirical evidence that the high level of industrial competition (IC), low level of market capitalization (market value of equity, MVE), and high levels of debt (debt-to-assets ratio, DAR) weaken the effect of profitability as measured by return on assets (ROA) on FV as measured by Tobin’s Q. Profitability is not even related to FV for firms facing high industry competition. In addition, profitability only has a marginal positive relationship with FV for firms with relatively small market capitalizations. These findings suggest that the relationship between profitability and FV is not monotonous but is influenced by the level of industry competence, market capitalization, and debt.

This study aims to examine the relationship between Achievement Motivation (AM), Smart Work (SW), and human resources (HR) performance. It questions how moral global leadership (MGL) could moderate the relationship between AM, SW, and HR performance. A theoretical model was developed and tested on sample data representing 219 employees, educators, and educational staff of Islamic Higher education (IHE). The data were collected through surveys and applied to structural equation modeling using SEM-PLS. This study found that AM and SW significantly affect HR performance. While MGL substantially moderates the relationship between AM, SW, and HR performance. This study contributes to the literature on MGL, AM, and SW in creating HR performance that has yet to be studied so far. This study offers the concept of MGL, which plays a central role in moderating the relationship between AM, SW, and HR performance.

In Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) cases, a number of steps to ensure that the measurement of the latent constructs, variables, and indicators have been appropriate, reliable, and meet the rules of quantitative research that must be passed by researchers. One of them is the criteria for determining the presence (or not) of a discriminant validity violation, which is still a fierce debate among researchers today. The last recommended method is the Heterotrait–Monotrait ratio of correlation (HTMT) which seeks to revise the previously existing discriminant validity criteria such as the Fornell–Larcker and Cross-loadings criteria. This chapter discusses the implementation of HTMT in the case of manufacturing small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Indonesia with the aim of providing an illustration of how the HTMT is capable of detecting the violation of discriminant validity and the solutions that can be carried out following the recommendations given by the originators.

The authors examine the impact of CEO generalist experience on firm performance. Using 522 listed firms in Indonesia for the period 2010–2018, the authors find that the generalist CEO is negatively associated with firm performance. Generalist CEOs tend to experience ambiguity in adjustments in the new environment. In order to decrease the impact of a generalist CEO, our empirical evidence finds that CEO tenure does not significantly moderate the association between the two. This is because generalist CEOs with longer tenure tend to avoid changing strategies, and therefore the negative impact of CEO generalist is not altered. The results of this study provide suggestions for the firm in the developing country to appoint a CEO with generalist experience.