Sets out to discover what makes a great vintage and whether the quality of a wine can be predicted. The ‘en primeur’ market from the 1960's to the early 1990's is reviewed and what the market regards as a quality wine is tested for correlation with longevity. Weather patterns associated with excellent vintages are examined with the conclusion that they occur at random. Vintages of up to ninety years are analysed to establish probability factors and from these factors a pricing method is proposed. Concludes that it should be possible to gain competitive advantage through the use of probability analysis, although this concept should be judged in the long term.
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