Do you have a naïve forecasting model of the future?
Journal of Property Investment & Finance
ISSN: 1463-578X
Article publication date: 23 March 2020
Issue publication date: 16 June 2020
Abstract
Purpose
This paper addresses the increasingly rapid and disruptive changes caused by technology innovations impacting commercial real estate (CRE) and how leaders in today's CRE business environment can better anticipate, and even experiment with, disruptive technologies while maintaining current business assets and practices.
Design/methodology/approach
This qualitative research is based in systems theory, through which the impact of disruptive technology innovation cycles on business models is described for tactical and strategic utility.
Findings
The advent of the fourth industrial revolution (Industry 4.0) is characterized by a convergence of multiple technological innovations including artificial intelligence, the Internet of things, smart buildings, autonomous agents, and automated decision-making. Industry 4.0 promises a future of discontinuities and disruptive innovation superseding the deployment of digital technologies enabled by Industry 3.0. Ambidextrous leaders need to maintain two concurrent foci: one on the current CRE business environment for incremental improvements and one on new opportunities made possible by the next technology innovation cycle.
Practical implications
By anticipating the inflection points of nonlinear technology adoption cycles, CRE leaders can reduce risks and increase innovative opportunities as participants in the next disruptive cycle rather than falling victim to it.
Originality/value
This work examines CRE market disruptions caused by technology innovation cycles through the lens of systems theory. A connection is made between the nonlinear nature of technology disruption cycles within the CRE business environment and how CRE leadership can better anticipate and prepare for change through ambidextrous thinking.
Keywords
Citation
Wofford, L., Wyman, D. and Starr, C.W. (2020), "Do you have a naïve forecasting model of the future?", Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Vol. 38 No. 4, pp. 267-269. https://doi.org/10.1108/JPIF-12-2019-0154
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2020, Emerald Publishing Limited