Canonical correlation analysis: Macroeconomic variables versus stock returns
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper was to construct a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) model for the Zimbabwe stock exchange (ZSE). This paper analyses the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock returns for the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange using the canonical correlation analysis (CCA).
Design/methodology/approach
Data for the independent (macroeconomic) variables and dependent variables (stock returns) were extracted from secondary sources for the period from January 1990 to December 2008. For each variable, 132 sets of data were collected. Eight top trading companies at the ZSE were selected, and their monthly stock returns were calculated using monthly stock prices. The independent variables include: consumer price index, money supply, treasury bills, exchange rate, unemployment, mining and industrial index. The CCA was used to construct the CCA model for the ZSE.
Findings
Maximization of stock returns at the ZSE is mostly influenced by the changes in consumer price index, money supply, exchange rate and treasury bills. The four macroeconomic variables greatly affect the movement of stock prices which, in turn, affect stock returns. The stock returns for Hwange, Barclays, Falcon, Ariston, Border, Caps and Bindura were significant in forming the CCA model.
Research limitations/implications
During the research period, some companies delisted due to economic hardships, and this reduced the sample size for stock returns for respective companies.
Practical implications
The results from this research can be used by policymakers, stock market regulators and the government to make informed decisions when crafting economic policies for the country. The CCA model enables the stakeholders to identify the macroeconomic variables that play a pivotal role in maximizing the strength of the relationship with stock returns.
Social implications
Macroeconomic variables, such as consumer price index, inflation, etc., directly affect the livelihoods of the general populace. They also impact on the performance of companies. The society can monitor economic trends and make the right decisions based on the current trends of economic performance.
Originality/value
This research opens a new dimension to the study of macroeconomic variables and stock returns. Most studies carried out so far in Zimbabwe zeroed in on multiple regression as the central methodology. No study has been done using the CCA as the main methodology.
Keywords
Citation
Mazuruse, P. (2014), "Canonical correlation analysis: Macroeconomic variables versus stock returns", Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Vol. 6 No. 2, pp. 179-196. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-09-2013-0047
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2014, Emerald Group Publishing Limited