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The role of inventories for the propagation of aggregate fluctuations: lessons for Bulgaria (1999–2019)

Aleksandar Vasilev (Accountancy, Finance and Economics, University of Lincoln – Brayford Campus, Lincoln, UK)

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences

ISSN: 1026-4116

Article publication date: 15 June 2021

39

Abstract

Purpose

In this study, inventories are introduced as a productive input into a real-business-cycle (RBC) setup augmented with the government.

Design/methodology/approach

The model is calibrated to Bulgarian data for the period 1999–2019. The quantitative importance of the presence of inventories is investigated.

Findings

The quantitative effect of inventories is found to be important: decreasing consumption volatility and increasing employment variability. Those results, however, are at the expense of decreasing wage volatility and increasing investment volatility, and generally worsening the contemporaneous correlations of the main variables with output.

Originality/value

Fluctuations in inventory levels matter for business cycle fluctuations in Bulgaria, which is a novel result. Still, there is a need for more research on the incorporation of inventories into RBC models to better fit the Bulgarian experience.

Keywords

Citation

Vasilev, A. (2021), "The role of inventories for the propagation of aggregate fluctuations: lessons for Bulgaria (1999–2019)", Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEAS-11-2020-0195

Publisher

:

Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2021, Emerald Publishing Limited

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