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Futures Triangle 2.0: integrating the Futures Triangle with Scenario Planning

Alessandro Fergnani (Department of Management and Organisation, National University of Singapore Business School, Singapore)

Foresight

ISSN: 1463-6689

Article publication date: 13 January 2020

Issue publication date: 20 March 2020

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to introduce the Futures Triangle 2.0, a methodological advancement of the Futures Triangle method (Inayatullah, 2008), which better integrates the original method with Scenario Planning by visually representing scenarios against the three dimensions of the Triangle, i.e. pulls, pushes and weights.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper explains the theoretical rationale behind the creation of the method, outlines the steps required to use it in a futures workshop or in a futures research project with a step-by-step procedure and reports a case study of its application in practice.

Findings

The Futures Triangle 2.0 encourages a deliberate and systematic discussion on the three dimensions of the Futures Triangle in each scenario and on whether scenarios differ in these attributes. The method allows the foresight researcher/practitioner to capture the valuable tensions between weights on the past on one hand and pushes of the present/pulls of the futures on the other hand, and to make sure that the scenarios differ substantially in these three attributes.

Originality/value

The method integrates the Futures Triangle and Scenario Planning in an intuitive, easily reproducible and visually pleasant graphical procedure.

Keywords

Acknowledgements

The author is indebted to Prof. Song Zhaoli (NUS), Prof. Wang Guofeng (UESTC), as well as to Kanoleon Kiti, Tang Huidao, Ma Junwei, and all the other students who took part in the futures workshop here reported without whom this research would not have been possible.

Citation

Fergnani, A. (2020), "Futures Triangle 2.0: integrating the Futures Triangle with Scenario Planning", Foresight, Vol. 22 No. 2, pp. 178-188. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-10-2019-0092

Publisher

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2019, Emerald Publishing Limited