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Article
Publication date: 1 February 1981

H. Ronald Hamilton

Scenarios are viewed as a desirable input to planning because they address two key trends in the planning environment:

Abstract

Scenarios are viewed as a desirable input to planning because they address two key trends in the planning environment:

Details

Journal of Business Strategy, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0275-6668

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Article
Publication date: 1 February 2003

Peter Kennedy, Charles Perrottet and Charles Thomas

Managers need a framework for assessing various kinds of risk and uncertainty that will continue to confront corporate decision makers as the 9/11 event plays out over the…

Abstract

Managers need a framework for assessing various kinds of risk and uncertainty that will continue to confront corporate decision makers as the 9/11 event plays out over the following months and years. The authors suggest an innovative scenario process, one that provides business continuity planning and medium‐term operational planning with a more rigorous analytical grounding, but without overburdening the process with excessive and ultimately counter‐productive complexity. The authors have introduced alternative scenario‐based tools to respond to this specific need for continuity assurance and near‐term operations planning. Case one: business continuity planning (BCP) for the management of one leading global financial services firm committed to a process of identifying and remedying gaps in the recoverability of its key assets. Workshops developed strategies that would close unacceptable asset recovery gaps in two scenarios. Case two: medium term operational planning for a professional services firm in the weeks that followed 9/11 evaluated the plausible range of impacts on their business and operations as the USA and the world took action and terrorist groups responded further. Case three: three years ago the US Coast Guard developed scenarios for very long range strategic planning for their long view project. The Coast Guard developed ten basic strategies from these scenarios. The fourth strategy was “Acquire full maritime domain awareness”. The goal was to give the Coast Guard the ability to acquire, track, and identify in real time any vessel or aircraft entering America’s maritime domain. Maritime domain awareness (MDA) turned out to be highly relevant for USCG decision making both before and after 9/11. Of all the major US federal services involved in the 9/11 response operation, the Coast Guard was singled out for its agility and preparedness.

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Strategy & Leadership, vol. 31 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1087-8572

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Article
Publication date: 16 March 2015

Albert Postma

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the scenario planning approach developed and used by the European Tourism Futures Institute (ETFI).

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the scenario planning approach developed and used by the European Tourism Futures Institute (ETFI).

Design/methodology/approach

This paper contains the following sections: mission and aims of the research group; epistemological and methodological positioning, conceptual framework and research lines for an applied scenario planning approach.

Findings

This paper highlights the research methodology of the scenario planning group of the European Tourism Research Institute. It provides insight in the research foundations of the scenario planning approach in a tourism context and ETFI's conceptual framework for scenario planning.

Originality/value

The paper provides an insight to how Europe's first tourism futures research centre developed and uses a conceptual framework for scenario planning thus demonstrating best practice success.

Details

Journal of Tourism Futures, vol. 1 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2055-5911

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Book part
Publication date: 16 June 2015

Jon E. Cawthorne

This research highlights the scenarios that might serve as a strategic vision to describe a future beyond the current library, one which both guides provosts and creates a…

Abstract

This research highlights the scenarios that might serve as a strategic vision to describe a future beyond the current library, one which both guides provosts and creates a map for the transformation of human resources and technology in the university research libraries. The scenarios offer managerial leaders an opportunity to envision new roles for librarians and staff which brings a much needed focus on the development of human resources as well as a thought-stream to understand decisions which effectively and systematically move the organization toward a strategic vision.

These scenarios also outline possible future directions research libraries could take by focusing on perspectives from library directors, provosts, and administrators for human resources. The four case study scenarios introduce potential future roles for librarians and highlight the unsustainability of the current scholarly communications model as well as uncertain factors related to the political, social, technical, and demographic issues facing campuses. Given the changes institutions face, scenarios allow directors to include more uncertainty when developing and articulating a vision. These scenarios may start a discussion, before a strategic planning process, to sharpen the evaluations and measures necessary to monitor achievements that define the value of the library.

Details

Advances in Library Administration and Organization
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-910-3

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Article
Publication date: 7 March 2008

Rozhan Othman

This paper aims to propose the idea of linking the use of the balanced scorecard with scenario planning. Scenario planning emphasizes the development of a strategic plan

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose the idea of linking the use of the balanced scorecard with scenario planning. Scenario planning emphasizes the development of a strategic plan that is robust across different scenarios. This ensures that the strategy implemented using the balanced scorecard is linked to external conditions and takes into consideration the expected changes in the environment.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper examines the criticisms of the balanced scorecard and proposes the use of scenario planning as a way of overcoming some of these limitations.

Findings

It argues that the use of scenario planning is capable of overcoming the lack of external orientation in the balanced scorecard. Scenario planning also helps make the balanced scorecard more reflective of changes that may appear in the future. This ensures that the scorecard developed is not merely a linear extension from the present.

Research limitations/implications

Studies need to be undertaken to examine whether integrating scenario planning with the balanced scorecard leads to more effective strategy implementation.

Practical implications

Adopters of the balanced scorecard need to recognize that developing a balanced scorecard system needs to be preceded by a strategy formulation process that incorporates an understanding of how future events may evolve. This can be achieved using scenario planning.

Originality/value

This study is probably the first attempt to link the implementation of the balanced scorecard and scenario planning.

Details

International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, vol. 57 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1741-0401

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Article
Publication date: 1 January 2006

Pasi Rikkonen, Jari Kaivo‐oja and Jyrki Aakkula

This article seeks to present approaches on the utilisation of expert information in strategic planning practices.

Abstract

Purpose

This article seeks to present approaches on the utilisation of expert information in strategic planning practices.

Design/methodology/approach

The article emphasises alternative scenario development for the bases of decision making. This is done through an evaluation of Delphi studies and their feasibility for scenario construction. As an application of the information processes, both narrow and broad expert information processes are presented as alternative sources for solutions in public sector strategic planning.

Findings

Basically, there are two alternative ways to utilise Delphi studies in strategic planning and decision making: a broad expert information process (BEIP) model; and a narrow expert information process (NEIP) model.

Practical implications

As a broad process, an example is presented of the alternative future outcomes and the argumentation around it in the share of genetically modified plant varieties in commercial farming in Finland.

Originality/value

This theoretical review contributes to the discussions of the linkages between the use of expert information, the scenario planning and the strategic planning processes.

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Article
Publication date: 1 February 2013

Boo Edgar, Adli Abouzeedan, Thomas Hedner, Karl Maack and Mats Lundqvist

Planning under conditions of uncertainty is more demanding than doing the same under less uncertain circumstances. Planning which is coupled to high level of uncertainty…

Abstract

Purpose

Planning under conditions of uncertainty is more demanding than doing the same under less uncertain circumstances. Planning which is coupled to high level of uncertainty requires good strategic thinking by the planners. There are a number of methods used for planning under such circumstances. Among these methods is scenario planning. Scenario planning has been used for classical management to help organizations and firms in their decision‐making activities. One area where scenario planning has not been used intensively, according to the authors’ understanding, is in a regional development context and especially in relation to the innovation aspects and policy issues.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the authors discuss and exemplify the possible utilization of scenario planning to promote innovation in a regional development context. They look at the hidden potential of the method and discuss the challenges of its utilization. To run their analysis, they use a number of cases from the health sector. These cases are unique because they also involved input from a number of actors of the regional innovation system.

Findings

The authors found that scenario planning is a valuable tool to deal with regional development schemes under high level of uncertainty and where diverse actors from the regional innovation system are involved.

Originality/value

The authors argue in this work that scenario planning has the potential to be used, at a more intense scale, in promoting innovation activities in organizations within the context of a regional development drive. Surely, scenario planning need be considered when discussing innovation in relation to introduction of new therapies, new educational schemes, and other regional development initiatives.

Details

World Journal of Science, Technology and Sustainable Development, vol. 10 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2042-5945

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Article
Publication date: 2 May 2017

Thomas J. Chermack, Laura M. Coons, Gregory O’barr and Shiva Khatami

The purpose of this research is to examine the effects of scenario planning on participant ratings of resilience.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to examine the effects of scenario planning on participant ratings of resilience.

Design/methodology/approach

The research design is a quasi experimental pretest/posttest with treatment and control groups. Random selection or assignment was not achieved.

Findings

Results show a significant difference in reports of resilience for the scenario planning treatment group and no significant difference for the control group.

Research limitations/implications

Limitations include the use of self-report perception measures, possible social desirability of responses and a lack of random selection and assignment.

Practical implications

Practical implications imply that scenario planning can be viewed as a legitimate tool for increasing resilience in organizations.

Social implications

Organizations with an ability to adjust quickly and recover from difficult conditions means reduced layoffs and healthy economic growth.

Originality/value

While there is increasing research on scenario planning, to date, none has examined the effects of scenarios on resilience.

Details

European Journal of Training and Development, vol. 41 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2046-9012

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Article
Publication date: 18 May 2015

Richard B. Nyuur

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the value of scenario planning to small and medium size enterprises (SMEs), and further examine the challenges constraining the…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to discuss the value of scenario planning to small and medium size enterprises (SMEs), and further examine the challenges constraining the uptake of scenario planning by SMEs.

Design/methodology/approach

A conceptual review of the literature on scenario planning in SMEs intended to unpack and capture the possible underlying reasons accounting for the limited uptake of scenario planning by managers/owners of SMEs has informed the formulation of this paper.

Findings

The study uncovered that SMEs’ managerial mental models, SMEs’ managerial time orientation, severe resource constraints, and industry complexity are some of the salient factors inhibiting the use of scenario planning among managers/owners of SMEs. The author develops a framework of propositions that account for the complexity and challenges of scenario planning by SMEs for future empirical examination and validation.

Originality/value

The conventional wisdom is that scenario planning is carried out by large and established firms, and that SMEs are unable to adopt and practice the technique. This paper uncovers that SME have substantial needs for scenario planning, but are only able to engage in simple foresight activities such as brainstorming, desk research, networking and expert interviews to monitor their external environment. They are unable to effectively use scenario planning in its purest form as in large firms. By bringing together the reasons accounting for the difficulty of SMEs to practice scenario planning in its purest form as large firms do, the study therefore extends the limited discourse on scenario planning among SMEs. Implications are discussed and areas for future empirical studies provided.

Details

Journal of Strategy and Management, vol. 8 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-425X

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Article
Publication date: 8 November 2013

Thomas J. Chermack and Kim Nimon

– The paper ' s aim is to report a research study on the mediator and outcome variable sets in scenario planning.

Abstract

Purpose

The paper ' s aim is to report a research study on the mediator and outcome variable sets in scenario planning.

Design/methodology/approach

This is a cannonical correlation analysis (CCA)

Findings

Twso sets of variables; one as a predictor set that explained a significant amount of variability in the second, or outcome set of variables were found.

Research limitations/implications

The study did not involve random selection or assignment and used perception-based measures.

Practical implications

The findings support scenario planning as a tool to reinforce certain decision styles and learning organization culture.

Originality/value

A critical contribution to scenario planning research, this study brings some order to the variety of variables espoused to be involved in scenario work. Clear outcomes are a learning culture and intuitive/dependent decision styles. The study makes a real contribution to quantitative scenario studies.

Details

European Journal of Training and Development, vol. 37 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2046-9012

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