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Article
Publication date: 22 March 2021

Saija Toivonen

The purpose of this paper is to study the user experiences of the futures wheel method to investigate its suitability to advance futures thinking in the real estate field.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the user experiences of the futures wheel method to investigate its suitability to advance futures thinking in the real estate field.

Design/methodology/approach

The user experiences of the futures wheel method are investigated through questionnaire answers of 114 master’s level students and real estate experts taking part in future wheel workshops.

Findings

The futures wheel method could enhance future-oriented thinking and decision-making in the real estate field. The respondents see futures thinking as an important skill and recognize several advantages concerning the method.

Practical implications

The futures wheel method bears great potential to be used in the real estate sector and it could be a fruitful addition to the curriculums at different education levels in real estate studies.

Social implications

Futures thinking is essential when aiming for sustainable decisions in the real estate field which again would benefit the whole surrounding society.

Originality/value

This paper is the first published paper concentrating on the user experiences of the future wheel method in the real estate sector. The benefits and the disadvantages of the method are investigated but also the attitudes indicating the potential of the method to be successfully adopted in the field are analyzed.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research , vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

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Book part
Publication date: 8 July 2010

Svetlana Shmulyian, Barry Bateman, Ruth G. Philpott and Neelu K. Gulri

This chapter analyzes the success factors, outcomes, and future viability of large-group methods. We have used an exploratory action research approach focusing on eight…

Abstract

This chapter analyzes the success factors, outcomes, and future viability of large-group methods. We have used an exploratory action research approach focusing on eight variously purposed large-group methods (AmericaSpeaks, Appreciative Inquiry, Conference Model®, Decision Accelerator, Future Search, Participative Design, Strategic Change Accelerator/ACT (IBM), and Whole-Scale™ Change). We interviewed nine leading practitioners and creators for each method, as well as six clients who had played key roles in most of these methods' execution at their organizations, asking them to reflect on the current practices and outcomes and the future of each respective large-group method, as well as the methods as a group of interventions. Based on our findings derived through theme and content analysis of interviews, we purport that both the Art (excellence in method execution) and the Artist (the right facilitator) are necessary for achieving desired outcomes of the large-group methods. We stipulate that critical elements of the Art include these five common elements (or five “I”s): having the right Individuals in the room; aiming the method at resolving the right Issue; having Intentional process (including pre-work, intra-method process, and follow-up); having the right Information in the meeting; and using the right Infrastructure (such as appropriate physical space, technology, etc.). We suggest that while these elements of Art are important, the simultaneous requisite role of the Artist is to manage the tension between the rigidity of the Art (the 5 “I”s) and the emerging human dynamics occurring between the large-group method process and the associated evolving client objectives. That is, to achieve desired outcomes, the execution of large-group method needs to be both highly premeditated and ingenious. We supplement our findings with client case descriptions and quotes from the practitioners and conclude that these large-group methods are particularly appropriate for resolving a variety of issues facing today's organizations operating under the conditions of high technology saturation, interdependence, globalization, economic downturn, and others – and that this, with some exceptions, will likely remain the case in the future. However, the future use of these methods will be challenged by the availability of Artists who can execute the methods so they lead to desired outcomes. We close with discussion of open questions and directions for future research.

Details

Research in Organizational Change and Development
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-85724-191-7

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Article
Publication date: 3 March 2020

Mohammad Reza Fathi, Mohammad Hasan Maleki, Seyed Mohammad Sobhani and Can Deniz Koksal

The purpose of this study is to formulate exploratory scenarios of Operations Research through the critical uncertainty approach and Soft Systems Methodology.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to formulate exploratory scenarios of Operations Research through the critical uncertainty approach and Soft Systems Methodology.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, to formulate plausible scenarios, the discipline of operation research internal and external experts’ opinions of this field have been gathered through Delphi approach and uncertainty questionnaires. After use of the most important uncertainties, plausible scenarios of operations research have been mapped with the help of experts through co-thinking workshops.

Findings

Four scenarios are presented in this study. These scenarios include Solar System, Esfandiar's Eye, Rival’s Setraps and Legendary Simurgh. Naturally, the imagination of such a unitary future for all academic communities is an expectation far from reality, and given the conditions of each of these futures or any integration of them is imaginable.

Originality/value

Operations Research models have been faced with variously multiple changes since its emergence until now. Investigation into the future of operations research on the necessity for his planning has not received a reasonable notice in the literature. Sporadic activities that have been carried out are also lacking in the necessary methodology. Also, there has been no research about future study using the soft Operation Research tools (Soft Systems Methodology).

Details

foresight, vol. 22 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 1 May 2006

Mika Aaltonen and T. Irene Sanders

The purpose of this research paper is to review and contrast traditional foresight methods through the lens of one of the key insights about complex adaptive systems

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this research paper is to review and contrast traditional foresight methods through the lens of one of the key insights about complex adaptive systems – namely, a system's sensitive dependence on initial conditions.

Design/methodology/approach

Foresight methods have often been criticized about their linear way of looking at the future. Insights from complex adaptive systems research, however, provide a new theory‐driven approach for developing real foresight methods as opposed to traditional forecasting methods based primarily on linear extrapolation. This serves as a starting point for the re‐analysis and re‐classification of the foresight methods, presented profoundly in the American Council for the United Nation's University Millennium Project's Futures Research Methodology – V2.0.

Findings

The findings of the analysis show which foresight methods actually present the future as a continuation of the present, and which instead are able to identify a system's new and emerging initial conditions; and what kind of possible understanding of the system the methods offer to the user.

Research limitations/implications

This research paper provides a new perspective to reopen the discussion about the necessary qualities of foresight methods. This paper argues that instead of trying to forecast the future the foresight methods should help us to see and influence the future as it is emerging.

Practical implications

Discussion and guidelines for methodological work and an introduction of complex systems concept‐tools map, a new set of methods and the way how it could be used together with Futures Research Methodology – V2.0 represent vast implications for organizations' foresight practices.

Originality/value

The origins of novelty are two: the complex adaptive systems perspective to discuss foresight methods, and the presentation of the new set of methods to support and complement Futures Research Methodology – V2.0.

Details

Foresight, vol. 8 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 1 March 2006

Joseph Voros

The purpose of this article is to examine the nature and type of methods used in futures studies and foresight work which are explicitly concerned with creating “forward

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this article is to examine the nature and type of methods used in futures studies and foresight work which are explicitly concerned with creating “forward views” and/or “images of the future” (“prospective” methods).

Design/methodology/approach

A new analytical technique, “mode‐level analysis”, is introduced and described, based on a classification of “modes” of futures thinking and levels of “depth” of interpretive frameworks. By choosing both a set of thinking modes and a series of interpretive levels as a basis, prospective methods may be analyzed in terms of which mode(s) and what level(s) they operate with or at.

Findings

Two modes of thinking and five levels of depth are chosen for this analysis. The resulting schema is used to classify such methods as: wildcards, forecasting, “trend breaks”, visioning, backcasting, and alternative histories and counterfactuals. An analysis is also carried out on the method of “scenarios”, revealing a variety of different approaches operating at multiple levels of depth. The historical development of prospective methods is also discussed.

Practical implications

Mode‐level analysis can be generalized to any number of modes or levels, depending on the application, context or objectives of the analyst. It may be used by academics for interest's sake and for teaching students, and by practitioners as both a design tool and a diagnostic one.

Originality/value

This paper introduces a new technique for classifying prospective methods, and may help lead to ideas for the creation of new methods.

Details

Foresight, vol. 8 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 8 August 2018

Davide C. Orazi and Angela Gracia B. Cruz

This paper aims to propose LARPnography as a more holistic method to probe the emergence of plausible futures, drawing on embodied embedded cognition literature and the…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to propose LARPnography as a more holistic method to probe the emergence of plausible futures, drawing on embodied embedded cognition literature and the emerging consumer practice of live-action role-playing (LARP). Current research methods for probing the future of markets and society rely mainly on expert judgment (i.e. Delphi), imagery or simulation of possible futures (i.e. scenario and simulation) and perspective taking (i.e. role-playing). The predominant focus on cognitive abstraction limits the insights researchers can extract from more embodied, sensorial and experiential approaches.

Design/methodology/approach

LARPnography is a qualitative method seeking to immerse participants within a plausible future to better understand the social and market dynamics that may unfold therein. Through careful planning, design, casting and fieldwork, researchers create the preconditions to let participants experience what the future may be and gather critical insights from naturalistic observations and post-event interviews.

Practical implications

Owing to its interactive nature and processual focus, LARPnography is best suited to investigate the adoption and diffusion of innovation, market emergence phenomena and radical societal changes, including the rise of alternative societies.

Originality/value

Different from previous foresight methods, LARPnography creates immersive and perceptually stimulating replicas of plausible futures that research participants can inhabit. The creation of a fictional yet socio-material world ensures that socially constructed meaning is enriched by phenomenological and visceral insights.

Details

European Journal of Marketing, vol. 53 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0309-0566

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 13 January 2020

Alessandro Fergnani

The purpose of this paper is to introduce the Futures Triangle 2.0, a methodological advancement of the Futures Triangle method (Inayatullah, 2008), which better…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to introduce the Futures Triangle 2.0, a methodological advancement of the Futures Triangle method (Inayatullah, 2008), which better integrates the original method with Scenario Planning by visually representing scenarios against the three dimensions of the Triangle, i.e. pulls, pushes and weights.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper explains the theoretical rationale behind the creation of the method, outlines the steps required to use it in a futures workshop or in a futures research project with a step-by-step procedure and reports a case study of its application in practice.

Findings

The Futures Triangle 2.0 encourages a deliberate and systematic discussion on the three dimensions of the Futures Triangle in each scenario and on whether scenarios differ in these attributes. The method allows the foresight researcher/practitioner to capture the valuable tensions between weights on the past on one hand and pushes of the present/pulls of the futures on the other hand, and to make sure that the scenarios differ substantially in these three attributes.

Originality/value

The method integrates the Futures Triangle and Scenario Planning in an intuitive, easily reproducible and visually pleasant graphical procedure.

Details

foresight, vol. 22 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 13 June 2019

Alessandro Fergnani

The purpose of this paper is to formally introduce the future persona, a futures method to let scenarios come to life. A future persona is a scenario-specific fictional…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to formally introduce the future persona, a futures method to let scenarios come to life. A future persona is a scenario-specific fictional individual living in the future scenario (s)he is meant to depict. The paper provides a formal, systematic and clear step-by-step guide on how to create engaging and effective future personas after a scenario planning exercise.

Design/methodology/approach

After having introduced the future persona method, tracing it back to the customer persona method in user centered design (UCD) and differentiating it from previous uses of futures characters in the futures studies literature and in other domains, an example of the creation process of four future personas based on four scenario archetypes of the futures of work is provided, illustrated with pictures and discussed.

Findings

Future personas, with their narratives and graphical illustrations, are found to be particularly useful to convey scenarios to a target audience.

Practical implications

Futures personas can be used in a scenario planning exercise to increase the clarity of scenarios in the mind of scenario planners and to let scenarios be known inside an organization.

Originality/value

Future personas can substantially enrich scenarios, increasing their liveliness, playfulness and empathy.

Details

foresight, vol. 21 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 1 April 2017

Nicholas R. Gardner, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Edward D. White and Andrew T. Wallen

This paper examines the opportunity cost of applying simple averages in formulating the Department of Defense (DoD) budget for foreign exchange rates. Using out-of-sample…

Abstract

This paper examines the opportunity cost of applying simple averages in formulating the Department of Defense (DoD) budget for foreign exchange rates. Using out-of-sample validation, we evaluate the status quo of a center-weighted average against a Random Walk model, ARIMA, forward rates, futures contracts, and a private firm's forecasts over two time periods extending from Fiscal Year (FY) 1991 to FY 2014. The results strongly indicate that four of the alternative methods outperform the status quo over the shorter time period, and three methods for both time periods. Furthermore, a non-parametric comparison of the median error demonstrates statistical similarities between the four alternative methods over the short term. Overall, the paper recommends using the futures option prices to decrease forecast error by 3.23% and avoiding a $34 million opportunity cost.

Details

Journal of Public Procurement, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1535-0118

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Article
Publication date: 1 June 2012

Heidi Auvinen, Anu Tuominen and Toni Ahlqvist

This paper aims to introduce a process for constructing long‐term visions of the transport system. The vision building process is demonstrated by creating a concise test

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to introduce a process for constructing long‐term visions of the transport system. The vision building process is demonstrated by creating a concise test vision of the Finnish transport system in 2100.

Design/methodology/approach

The vision building process combines four futures methods that support the long‐term foresight approach: transition management, PESTE analysis, the futures table and the Delphi method. The process is validated with a test vision.

Findings

A three‐step vision building process for long‐term transport system visions is structured. The three consecutive steps of the process are environmental scanning, constructing futures tables and visions, and describing visions. In addition, a demonstrative test vision is created to describe a possible future transport system in 2100 in a metropolitan Finland. The successful application of the developed method supports further work on creating full‐scale strategy‐driven visions.

Originality/value

Futures studies analyzing transport systems and infrastructures tend to focus on short‐ to medium‐term perspectives. This paper presents a unique method for constructing alternative long‐term visions as far as 50 to 100 years into the future.

Details

Foresight, vol. 14 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

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