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Russia's Armenia reinforcement may destabilise region

Location:

ARMENIA

As Russia expands military operations in Syria and escalates the crisis with Turkey, it has also bolstered its forces at its base in Armenia, the sole Russian military facility in…

Ankara and Damascus could clash in Idlib

Location:

SYRIA

Rebels complain that pro-government forces had earlier allowed IS safe passage to Idlib from Hama. At the same time, in northern Idlib, Turkish armoured convoys have deployed to…

Russia will save Assad to be part of Syria's endgame

Location:

RUSSIA

Russia's significant recent reinforcement of the Assad regime with the deployment of combat aircraft around Lattakia.

South Ossetia border with Georgia will stay tense

Location:

GEORGIA/RUSSIA

Controversial moves to mark the South Ossetia border.

Islamic State set for serious losses in Iraq in 2016

Location:

IRAQ

The Baghdad government is stabilising Ramadi after the coalition and Iraqi government forces recaptured it from ISG last month. Once this operation is complete, the focus will…

Syrian Kurds face a possible loss of autonomy

Location:

SYRIA

After the outbreak of civil war in 2011 and the rise of Islamic State (IS), the US-backed SDF managed to establish an autonomous administration in northeast Syria. However, it…

Islamic State may see a limited Iraq-Syria resurgence

Location:

IRAQ/SYRIA

Enabled in part by responses to the pandemic, 2020 saw a temporary surge in IS assaults across rural areas of Iraq and Syria. Attacks have also again become more coordinated and…

Damascus may press on in Idlib, at high human cost

Location:

SYRIA

Troops supporting President Bashar al-Assad launched their latest offensive in Syria’s last large rebel-held region in November 2019. Russian air support has enabled them to make…

Western Balkans will toughen migration controls

Location:

WESTERN BALKANS

Almost 150,000 irregular migrants entered the EU through the Western Balkans in 2022, a 135% increase on 2021. In response, Brussels has stepped up cooperation with regional…

War will make Bulgaria and Romania boost defence spend

Location:

BULGARIA/ROMANIA

The decision comes after the legislature endorsed, on November 3, the direct supply of weapons to Ukraine. The upgrading of defence by Bulgaria and its neighbour Romania…