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Baltic fiscal prudence will return even with low debt

Location:

BALTIC STATES

Monthly output in Estonia started contracting from June. GDP (adjusted) stagnated in the first quarter of 2022, and contracted quarter-on-quarter in the following two quarters…

2023 will test East European V4 economies’ resilience

Location:

EASTERN EUROPE

Economic hardship may be increasing support for populism and far-right politics, especially in the more vulnerable Slovakia and Hungary. Proximity to the war, including spending…

Pre-election spending may prop up Polish economy

Location:

POLAND

The statistical office’s provisional estimate surpassed expectations and confirmed that Poland’s diversified economy, backed by government measures, had weathered the supply…

East European growth in 2023 will be modest at best

Location:

EASTERN EUROPE

Some countries are dipping into recession, while others are likely to manage modest growth. Their various policy and real-economy responses point to different strengths and…

Turkey will reduce inflation gradually

Location:

TURKEY

Although the central bank has increased interest rates substantially since June 2023, the effects on economic activity and inflation have been limited. Prices and policy…

Risks to the recovering Ukrainian economy will rise

Location:

UKRAINE

The economy has recovered somewhat from the one-third contraction in 2022 caused by Russia's invasion. Government spending, mainly on defence, dominates but agriculture has…

Eastern EU may target those vulnerable to inflation

Location:

EU

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine cut the supply of major staples to the Baltic states and the Visegrad Four (V4: Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia). Local factors, such as import…

US leadership could firm EU wobbling on Ukraine

Location:

EU

Eastern EU member-states, from the Baltics to the Black Sea, are united in applying existing sanctions against Russia, with only Hungary overtly weakening political unity on the…

Russian oil supply cut would hit Central Europe hard

Location:

EASTERN EUROPE

Flows resumed within days, but the sudden cut-off -- ascribed to overdue transit payments -- highlights Central Europe’s dependence on Russian oil imports and the difficulty of…

Turkey’s recovering economy will lack resilience

Location:

TURKEY

Turkey’s economic bounce-back.