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India-France security ties to survive Scorpene setback

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INDIA/FRANCE

The impact of the recent Scorpene data leak on India's defence sector and security ties with France.

After Islamic State, Middle East fissures will deepen

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MIDDLE EAST

The salafi-jihadist group has lost almost all the territory it formerly held in Iraq and Syria. The recent attack on a mosque in Egypt’s Sinai also significantly reduced its local…

Guerrillas could prompt Turkish state of emergency

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TURKEY

They were responding to increasingly serious attacks on Turkish soldiers and police by Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) guerrillas in eastern Turkey. With President Recep Tayyip…

Rivalry will shape Gulf states’ relations

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GULF STATES

The restoration of diplomatic relations ends a seven-year period of intense competition between the two countries. The deal is a diplomatic agreement and does not address the root…

Yemen's southern forces will face further challenges

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YEMEN

The statement coincided with direct talks in the capital, Sana’a, on April 8-13, between Saudi Arabia and the Shia rebel Huthi movement which controls much of the north. Such…

Tensions over key Cambodian naval base will grow

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CAMBODIA

China’s role in the refurbishment of the Ream base has heightened US concerns that Beijing seeks a permanent military presence in South-east Asia. Growing geopolitical competition…

Domestic crises will challenge US-Nigeria relations

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NIGERIA/US

Distracted by a spiralling pandemic and crisis in its political institutions, the incoming US government will struggle to establish new initiatives both in Nigeria and across West…

Biden’s team will try to reset engagement with Africa

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AFRICA/US

This may see a redefining of US-Africa policy compared to the Trump administration’s focus on competition with China, including: resolving questions surrounding the role for US…

Biden’s Africa policy may bring continuity and change

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US/AFRICA

The outgoing administration has bequeathed Biden an incomplete trade policy transition but also some new tools with which to shape relations. Whether and how Biden maintains or…

Poland’s policy on farm protests may shift after polls

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POLAND

The latest protests coincide with the Donald Tusk government’s first 100 days and scrutiny of his performance as prime minister. Most polls indicate continuing support for the…