Rivalry will shape Gulf states’ relations

Significance

The restoration of diplomatic relations ends a seven-year period of intense competition between the two countries. The deal is a diplomatic agreement and does not address the root cause of the previous tension: the longstanding claim for leadership of the Islamic world.

Impacts

• Saudi Arabia will play a more active diplomatic role as a mediator in the region.
• Saudi Arabia will engage politically in Lebanon following a seven-year hiatus.
• Bahrain and the UAE could purchase Israel’s advanced air defence systems to offset the threat from Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities.
• Saudi Arabia’s decision whether to normalise with Israel will not be directly impacted by the restoration of diplomatic ties with Iran.