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Chances for negotiated Serbia-Kosovo deal are fading

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KOSOVO

The Kosovan government imposed a 10% tariff on imports from Serbia and Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) on November 6, frustrated at their refusal to recognise Kosovo’s independence…

Germany’s defence shift will face immediate obstacles

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GERMANY

The changes, which shocked Scholz's coalition partners, promise a major shift in Germany's strategic posture, with more military capability and a stress on building Europe's hard…

Iran deal failure would raise Middle Eastern tensions

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MIDDLE EAST

The chances of reviving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, nuclear deal) are slim. Western governments hope that an agreement will reduce regional tensions. Arab…

Belarus will stick with Russia but seek new partners

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BELARUS

Putin said more would follow by the end of summer or year-end, as a warning to the West against inflicting “strategic defeat” on Russia through its support for Ukraine. Accepting…

Hanoi will try to hedge against China

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VIETNAM

The twelve-country scheme included four South-east Asian countries, one of which was Vietnam, and was one aspect of former US President Barack Obama's direction of more US policy…

Prospects for US politics in 2021

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PROSPECTS 2021

At home, his administration will focus on economic revival and reform, and on COVID-19 public health measures. In foreign affairs, Biden’s team will focus on rebuilding US…

US foreign policy faces hurdles in Trump second term

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UNITED STATES

He has also called former Vice President Joe Biden, his presumed opponent in November’s election, “China’s puppet”. Trump’s first-term foreign policy has upended many norms…

Dialogue could save the day in Greek-Turkish tensions

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GREECE/TURKEY

Greece and Turkey had avoided serious conflict for more than two decades, but things have changed in the past few years. After Turkey gave notice of conducting seismic surveys…

Thai military will try to avoid launching a coup

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THAILAND

Beyond calling for Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s resignation, protesters have been challenging the military’s influence on politics and demanding reform of the monarchy. King…

EU will step up challenge to China’s maritime claims

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EU/CHINA

The EU released its first collective Indo-Pacific Strategy this month, which stresses support for freedom of navigation in the region.