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EU energy market reform would carry important risks

Location:

EU

Southern European countries want to impose price ceilings and decouple the electricity market from gas prices. They face strong resistance from northern member states, who instead…

Fading support for Ukraine will affect EU policymaking

Location:

EU

This suggests a growing disconnect within European society from the realities of the war and a decrease in the perceived threat posed by Russia. This outcome reflects heightened…

Baltic fiscal prudence will return even with low debt

Location:

BALTIC STATES

Monthly output in Estonia started contracting from June. GDP (adjusted) stagnated in the first quarter of 2022, and contracted quarter-on-quarter in the following two quarters…

No backstop or no deal is Ireland’s Brexit dilemma

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UK/IRELAND/EU

Despite the increasing risk and the implications of a no-deal Brexit, Ireland and the EU remain united in support of the main issue preventing a Brexit deal, the backstop.

Eastern Europe’s further convergence needs a reset

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EASTERN EUROPE

The Visegrad Four (V4) -- Czechia, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia -- have been widely regarded as an economic success in post-transition European integration, global value-chain…

Russian defence spending set to rise as army expands

Location:

RUSSIA

Russian defence spending rose by 23% in nominal terms last year as military needs and losses ballooned. The greater secrecy applied to military expenditure suggest this is an…

Gaza war will hike Israeli and Mideast gas risk

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MIDDLE EAST

The Israel-Hamas conflict that started on October 7 has had a direct impact on Israel’s gas supply. Following the Hamas attack, the Israeli government stopped production at the…

Poland, Czechia and Hungary may join euro, but not yet

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EASTERN EUROPE

The Denkov administration that took office in June has set adopting the euro as a top priority, and blames the previous interim government for Bulgaria’s unpreparedness to join…

Yemen's oil and gas revival hopes will be dashed

Location:

YEMEN

Reports suggest progress on several issues, including the mechanism for paying civil servants’ salaries. The possibility that the war will wind down opens the question of whether…

Russia has the edge in managed competition with Turkey

Location:

RUSSIA/TURKEY

They have backed opposing sides in the Syrian and Libyan conflicts and pursued different objectives there and in Nagorno-Karabakh, in the hope that conflict trends would benefit…