Russia has the edge in managed competition with Turkey

Significance

They have backed opposing sides in the Syrian and Libyan conflicts and pursued different objectives there and in Nagorno-Karabakh, in the hope that conflict trends would benefit either one or the other external power. Despite this, they have avoided direct confrontation through ad-hoc coordination.

Impacts

• Connectivity between different theatres may grow: Turkish gains in one conflict zone will elicit Russian pressure in another.
• Instability could be mitigated if Western states played a more active role but this is an uncertain prospect.
• Moscow will leverage the US and more broadly Western absence from key flashpoints.