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Turkish foreign policy will seek a power balance

Location:

TURKEY

Turkey’s confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is a key driver of regional and to some extent international policy. Erdogan’s comfortable victory in the May 2023…

COP28 actions will fall short of Paris goals

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INTERNATIONAL

Hopes of a leap forward in implementing the 2015 Paris Agreement largely fell flat, despite a historic acknowledgement of the need to “transition away” from fossil fuels in order…

Russia will rely more on Chinese demand for gas

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RUSSIA

Modestly increased gas exports to China have offset only a fraction of the lost business in Europe. The United States last year imposed sanctions on the flagship Arctic-2 LNG…

ASEAN will pursue incremental engagement in Myanmar

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MYANMAR

Myanmar’s junta for the first time accepted the invitation to have a ‘non-political’ representative at high-level ASEAN meetings, standing since its exclusion from such events…

Brunei will step up efforts to diversify economy

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BRUNEI

The IMF recently recommended structural reforms to bolster the economy, which has struggled to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Brunei has long been reliant on…

Gulf economies are on a stable track despite risks

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GULF STATES

The IMF has revised downwards its forecast for Saudi GDP growth in 2024 to 2.7% but raised its 2025 forecast to 5.5%. This reflects a positive medium-term outlook for the Gulf…

Russia will use CIS partners to conclude more FTAs

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CIS

Unprecedented Western sanctions have pushed Russia to seek new bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs). Moscow is moving fast to create a wide network of agreements with emerging…

Limits to Russia’s ties with Turkey will persist

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RUSSIA

Energy ties, already deep, have expanded since 2022 as part of a broader reorientation of Russian commerce away from the West. The similarly authoritarian leadership styles of…

Afghanistan’s economic outlook is bleak

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AFGHANISTAN

Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban want production to expand to 19,000 b/d shortly. They are counting on the extractives sector to help boost revenue and shore up the flailing economy.

France’s domestic climate agenda will be cautious

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FRANCE

This highlights government sensitivity to sectoral concerns about climate change regulation and reflects President Emmanuel Macron’s broader strategy of seeking incentives rather…