Afghanistan’s economic outlook is bleak

Significance

Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban want production to expand to 19,000 b/d shortly. They are counting on the extractives sector to help boost revenue and shore up the flailing economy.

Impacts

• Lack of diplomatic recognition may keep the Taliban dependent on the proceeds of smuggling, even if they want to avoid this.
• China, Iran and Uzbekistan will be key economic partners, because of their interest in helping with infrastructure development.
• The Taliban may encourage emigration, recognising that high unemployment does not augur well for the stability of the emirate.