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Multiple crises mean future instability in Madagascar

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MADAGASCAR

Rajoelina faces a wide array of challenges as he looks towards the final two years of his current presidential term. These include severe tensions within his inner circle, a…

Assassinations signal more violence ahead in Burundi

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BURUNDI

Despite creeping atrocities carried out by state actors, acts of violence targeting government figures and high-ranking National Council for the Defence of Democracy-Forces for…

Guinea-Bissau president seeks to reduce coup risk

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GUINEA-BISSAU

Guinea-Bissau is prone to coups: only one president since 1999 has served a full term. Embalo has survived an assassination attempt, and his reform agenda has been hampered by a…

Sao Tome’s government will further stifle dissent

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SAO TOME

Sao Tome political update.

Maldives will manage militancy and virus risks

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MALDIVES

The attempted assassination involved a remote-controlled device, signalling new capabilities among local militant groups. Separately, the Maldives has recently had a sharp rise in…

ECOWAS military moves in Niger would carry major risks

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NIGER

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) regional bloc has rejected the proposal. This follows a July 26-27 coup overthrowing President Mohamed Bazoum, who remains…

Regime change in Pyongyang cannot be ruled out

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NORTH KOREA

Yet events beyond its borders mean that if the regime does not change its direction strains can only increase. Modern media, impossible to exclude entirely, mean Pyongyang no…

Mali may use threat of greater Russian influence again

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MALI

The remarks follow confirmation of talks between Malian authorities and Russian private military company Wagner. France, which intends to reduce its military presence in Mali, is…

Comoros referendum raises new backsliding fears

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COMOROS

The highly contentious vote has been described by opposition parties as a dictatorial power grab by Union of the Comoros President Azali Assoumani.

Ethiopia will struggle to contain nationalist violence

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ETHIOPIA

Implications of recent high-level assassinations.