Regime change in Pyongyang cannot be ruled out

Significance

Yet events beyond its borders mean that if the regime does not change its direction strains can only increase. Modern media, impossible to exclude entirely, mean Pyongyang no longer has a monopoly of socialisation to mould true believers. Knowledge that others elsewhere live better is widespread.

Impacts

• Kim’s death will be a moment of truth; his unhealthy lifestyle is a national security risk.
• Domestic factors are paramount, but outside actors -- especially Beijing -- will inevitably become involved in any unfolding scenario.
• North Korea will become ever more reliant on China, which might at some point involve itself in local politics.