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France will struggle to refocus its Sahel strategy

Location:

FRANCE

Although France officially highlights the multilateral, multidimensional aspects of its operations in the Sahel, in practice the emphasis is on 'kinetic' operations and body…

Armenia's relations with Russia will worsen

Location:

ARMENIA

The rapid defeat of ethnic Armenian forces exposed the weakness of Russian security guarantees. Yerevan had already expressed dissatisfaction with Moscow's diminishing ability to…

Russia's uncaring attitude will alienate Armenia

Location:

ARMENIA

Pashinyan's failure to secure Putin's intervention underlines the poor state of bilateral ties. Russian peacekeepers are supposed to be preventing harm to the Armenians in…

Zagreb will leverage Belgrade's EU bid

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CROATIA/SERBIA

Many politicians and people who suffered in the wars of the 1990s in both countries will see the ICJ decision as a miscarriage of justice. The current tense relations between…

Russian Spetsnaz will be key to future destabilisation

Location:

RUSSIA

Russian Spetsnaz forces.

China’s defence spending will remain stable

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CHINA

Defence spending will account for 1.2% of GDP in 2024, having remained stable at around this figure for at least the past two decades. Nevertheless, outside estimates of China’s…

Erdogan provocation scores at home but not with Athens

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GREECE/TURKEY

The two nations have maintained a correct but tense relationship for nearly a century, only narrowly avoiding hostilities following the Turkish invasion of Cyprus in 1974 and…

South Korea may seek nuclear weapons

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SOUTH KOREA

Yoon had controversially raised that prospect a year ago. Han Dong-hoo -- head of Yoon’s conservative ruling People Power Party (PPP), and a likely future presidential contender…

Pro-Russian public mood strains Serbia's ties with EU

Location:

SERBIA

Serbs are heavily exposed to the pro-Moscow narratives that have dominated government-friendly and fringe nationalist media for years. EU pressure to join sanctions against Russia…

Hezbollah, Israel conflict risks sudden escalation

Location:

ISRAEL/LEBANON

The attack on a Hezbollah convoy in the Golan Heights is one of the most serious incidents in the Syrian-Lebanese border region with Israel since the beginning of Syria's civil…