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Zagreb will leverage Belgrade's EU bid

Thursday, February 5, 2015

Significance

Many politicians and people who suffered in the wars of the 1990s in both countries will see the ICJ decision as a miscarriage of justice. The current tense relations between Belgrade and Zagreb after Croatia's presidential election could prove to be not a temporary downturn but a more ominous trend.

Impacts

  • With nationalist rhetoric set to rise ahead of Croatian parliamentary elections, relations will continue to deteriorate in 2015.
  • The HDZ's likely ascent to power in Croatia makes improvement of relations less likely.
  • Serbia could easily find its EU path blocked by Croatia over unresolved bilateral issues in the near future.
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