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Peru cabinet reshuffle will bring little policy change

Location:

PERU

Boluarte has reshuffled some key cabinet posts, including the portfolios of defence, economy and finance, and energy and mines. The main purpose of the changes is to shore up…

Mali's opposition will struggle to challenge the junta

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MALI

Presidential elections were indefinitely postponed in September 2023. Prime Minister Choguel Maiga has stated that persistent insecurity means that elections are unrealistic…

Prospects for Middle East conflict in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

Hamas and its allies hope to press Israel to turn back before then, but that is highly unlikely unless Washington changes tack or Israel suffers an internal political crisis. A…

Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal may spur chain reaction

Location:

ETHIOPIA/SOMALIA

The deal has angered Somalia, which still claims sovereignty over Somaliland, and has triggered reactions that could aggravate already volatile geopolitics in the Horn of Africa.

Threats of instability in Libya abound in 2024

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LIBYA

While a 2020 ceasefire still holds, in the absence of new elections, the political landscape is significantly undermined by institutional rivalry. The country's fragmentation…

Myanmar junta is at a crossroads

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MYANMAR

The military government has in recent months lost considerable territory to its battlefield opponents, including ethnic armed organisations (EAOs) that have long fought the…

Ukraine’s EU membership will not be fast-tracked

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EU

This is a morale booster for Kyiv, but a lengthy accession procedure, likely vetoes from pro-Russian or Ukrainian-neutral governments, and uncertainty over the war’s course will…

Fast Ecuador security wins stoke longer-term issues

Location:

ECUADOR

He declared a state of emergency on January 9, giving the military a central role in tackling the crisis. The militarisation of security policy has reduced crime and increased…