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Climate change to hit development in the global south

Location:

INTERNATIONAL

In a scenario in which it becomes increasingly evident that carbon neutrality will not be reached by 2050, governments may switch the focus of spending from the energy transition…

Potential outcomes are not optimistic in Venezuela

Location:

VENEZUELA

A month after the declaration of Juan Guaido as ‘interim president’, regime-change ambitions are stalling. As Maduro digs in, the risks of opposition missteps increase. Events…

South Sudan peace deal faces trust deficit

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SOUTH SUDAN

Power-sharing has been highly contentious and a compromise between the two main factions marks a major breakthrough. However, the deal has not been formally signed, key issues…

Algeria will carefully navigate Niger’s crisis

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ALGERIA

Algeria has condemned Niger’s July 26 coup but also publicly opposed the threat of an armed intervention by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). It warns of a…

China’s defence spending will remain stable

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CHINA

Defence spending will account for 1.2% of GDP in 2024, having remained stable at around this figure for at least the past two decades. Nevertheless, outside estimates of China’s…

Russian A2/AD systems will undermine NATO credibility

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NATO

The emergence of Russian A2/AD zones in the High North, the Baltic Sea, the eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea impacts NATO's ability to operate in key regions of interest to…

The United Kingdom is facing permanent party break-up

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UNITED KINGDOM/EU

His submission follows her proposed Brexit ‘withdrawal agreement’ and came after the resignation of seven government ministers, who also oppose the agreement. May’s political…

Returnee influx may add to volatility in South Sudan

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SOUTH SUDAN

Meanwhile, South Sudan's Upper Nile State, where most returnees have arrived, continues to wrestle with persistent instability.

Russia’s Wagner Group poses problem for Serbia

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SERBIA

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Serbia has tried to balance between Moscow and Western states. The presence of Serb fighters in Ukraine and Wagner’s visibility in…

Somaliland’s Las Anod crisis defies easy resolution

Location:

SOMALIA

Las Anod clan leaders declared in February they no longer recognise the sovereignty of Somaliland, which unilaterally declared independence from Somalia in 1991, and wish the…