Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Serbia has tried to balance between Moscow and Western states. The presence of Serb fighters in Ukraine and Wagner’s visibility in Serbia challenge Vucic’s policy of equidistance, as they could trigger pushback by the United States and EU.
- The United States and the EU will pay greater attention to the Wagner Group’s outreach in the Balkans.
- The Serbian parliament may beef up 2015 legislation prohibiting Serbian citizens from fighting in foreign conflicts.
- Moscow could use the Wagner Group as a lever to pressure the Serbian leadership.
- Russia will keep a close eye on its diaspora in Serbia.