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Nigeria's Rivers State dispute raises instability risk

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NIGERIA

The dispute centres over Wike’s efforts to retain control of state resources, the legislature and administrative machinery and Fubara’s efforts to assert his independence from his…

Hungary may stop delaying Sweden joining NATO soon

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HUNGARY

Orban made the announcement during his annual State of the Nation address. For 18 months, Budapest has delayed ratifying Sweden’s NATO membership, over Stockholm's criticism of…

Elite deals prop up Kenya’s weak political stability

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KENYA

Among other things, the three leaders discussed Odinga’s ambitions to become chairman of the African Union (AU) Commission. Alongside reform proposals made by a National Dialogue…

Turkish foreign policy will seek a power balance

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TURKEY

Turkey’s confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is a key driver of regional and to some extent international policy. Erdogan’s comfortable victory in the May 2023…

Ukraine’s EU membership will not be fast-tracked

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EU

This is a morale booster for Kyiv, but a lengthy accession procedure, likely vetoes from pro-Russian or Ukrainian-neutral governments, and uncertainty over the war’s course will…

US forces will likely withdraw from Niger

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NIGER

This occurs amid a breakdown in Niger's relations with the United States following the junta’s March 16 abrogation of a military agreement governing the presence of US troops in…

Poland’s policy on farm protests may shift after polls

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POLAND

The latest protests coincide with the Donald Tusk government’s first 100 days and scrutiny of his performance as prime minister. Most polls indicate continuing support for the…

Albanian premier faces tough year ahead of elections

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ALBANIA

The PD has started healing some of the rifts that have divided it for nearly three years. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Edi Rama’s Socialist Party (PS) is favourite to win…

China’s influence in Africa will continue to grow

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CHINA/AFRICA

Although the minister’s tour included visits to several of the region’s Chinese-funded infrastructure mega-projects, Wang Yi was careful to cast these investments as just one…

Guinea's junta will dominate the political transition

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GUINEA

Conde’s increasingly authoritarian rule had generated widespread resentment, particularly following his controversial third-term election victory in October 2020. The Economic…