Guinea's junta will dominate the political transition

Significance

Conde’s increasingly authoritarian rule had generated widespread resentment, particularly following his controversial third-term election victory in October 2020. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) condemned the coup and suspended Guinea’s membership until the return of “constitutional order” but did not call for Conde’s reinstatement.

Impacts

• International fears over Guinea’s stability may hinder new investments in the country’s mining sector in the short and medium term.
• The junta will not interfere with existing mining concessions and contracts.
• ECOWAS’s soft acquiescence to the coup may encourage other regional coup attempts.
• The junta will likely invite members of the opposition to form a broad-based transitional government while it maintains overall control.