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Arevalo will steer gradual improvements in Guatemala

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GUATEMALA

Arevalo’s victory marks a shift in Guatemalan politics. After years of democratic backsliding, Arevalo promises a slow, partial recovery of transparency and the rule of law. His…

Albania’s tourist boom will endure

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ALBANIA

Albanian tourism is booming. The country has posted Europe’s strongest growth in terms of overnight stays (the EU average was 13%). More than 60% of bookings came from foreign…

Moscow can afford the war in Ukraine

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RUSSIA

Hopes that sanctions and a sclerotic economy will hinder Russia’s war effort are likely to prove misplaced. Careful management of the budget and healthy oil revenues mean that the…

Prospects for the global economy in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

Weak trade and fiscal policy constraints suggest global GDP growth will slow somewhat in 2024, with China and the United States losing momentum. Hopes for growth-boosting rate…

Tourism to drive Belize economic growth amid slowdown

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BELIZE

Real GDP surged by 15% in 2021 and 12% in 2022, then by 4% in 2023. With inflation easing, risks of social instability have probably fallen over the past year, but growth looks…

After a strong year for Australia, growth will slow

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AUSTRALIA

This figure is higher than the RBA’s forecast of 1.5%, as labour demand remains strong and business investment resumes as supply chain disruption subsides. However, persistent…

Brunei will step up efforts to diversify economy

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BRUNEI

The IMF recently recommended structural reforms to bolster the economy, which has struggled to recover from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Brunei has long been reliant on…

Risks will outweigh recovery chances in Eastern Europe

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EASTERN EUROPE

The economic environment has been dictated by Russia’s war in Ukraine and its market and policy implications. Next year, the prospects for the V4 economies are moderately upbeat…

Smaller trade surplus will keep ruble low this year

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RUSSIA

Pronounced ruble depreciation this year attests to the efficacy of sanctions in disrupting Russia’s external trade. The weaker ruble has already provoked a spike in household…

Fiscal and external challenges lie ahead for Panama

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PANAMA

Panama has demonstrated resilience and maintained economic momentum, despite challenges such as reduced traffic through the drought-stricken Panama Canal and the closure, after…