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Political tensions will escalate in Guinea-Bissau

Location:

GUINEA-BISSAU

Protestors were demonstrating against President Umaro Sissoco Embalo’s December 4 decision to dissolve parliament, in which the PAIGC held a majority, and thus remove the…

Abyei conflict may trigger wider unrest in South Sudan

Location:

SOUTH SUDAN

Government attempts to stop the clashes have been ineffective, and both sides have used Nuer forces from elsewhere in South Sudan, risking a broadening conflict.

Ethiopia’s Amhara conflict may be protracted

Location:

ETHIOPIA

Following an extension of the state of emergency in February, new army offensives, including around the regional capital, Bahir Dar, have intensified the conflict. Reports of…

Sierra Leone coup attempt may fuel political tensions

Location:

SIERRA LEONE

The government has described the events as a coup attempt. Some 20 people were reported killed in the fighting and over 2,000 prisoners were freed. Subsequently, the government…

Nigeria intel failures will hinder counter-terrorism

Location:

NIGERIA

Although criticisms targeting the DSS are long-standing, no recent Nigerian government has attempted major intelligence reforms.

Elite deals prop up Kenya’s weak political stability

Location:

KENYA

Among other things, the three leaders discussed Odinga’s ambitions to become chairman of the African Union (AU) Commission. Alongside reform proposals made by a National Dialogue…

Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal may spur chain reaction

Location:

ETHIOPIA/SOMALIA

The deal has angered Somalia, which still claims sovereignty over Somaliland, and has triggered reactions that could aggravate already volatile geopolitics in the Horn of Africa.

Congo heads towards a contested election

Location:

CONGO-KINSHASA

President Felix Tshisekedi seeks re-election after coming to power five years ago in controversial circumstances. There are credible fears that these polls could prove equally…