Political tensions will escalate in Guinea-Bissau

Significance

Protestors were demonstrating against President Umaro Sissoco Embalo’s December 4 decision to dissolve parliament, in which the PAIGC held a majority, and thus remove the PAIGC-led government. Embalo invoked an alleged December 1 coup attempt as a pretext, but the constitutionality of his move has been questioned.

Impacts

• The current institutional crisis may prevent Embalo from pushing through his desired constitutional reforms.
• Embalo may use the alleged coup attempt as a pretext to crack down on perceived dissidents in the security services.
• A fall in cashew nut prices will put pressure on public finances.
• Embalo may request a troop increase for the regional force currently deployed in the country to deter coup attempts.