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Gulf states’ soft power policies will expand

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GULF STATES

Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pursued a multipolar global soft power policy since the early 2000s in order to boost their international reputations and attract investment…

Ukraine issue will become domestic before US elections

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UNITED STATES

Kyiv has long sought supplies of cluster munitions, pointing to their use by Russia in Ukraine, but Biden’s decision has caused controversy among some Democrats who see it as…

Hungary’s Orban will probably survive Bicske scandal

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HUNGARY

Fidesz has suffered three high-profile political casualties following the presidential pardon for Endre Konya, who tried to cover up for a child abuser: President Katalin Novak…

Rabat’s Islamists will struggle to overcome weaknesses

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MOROCCO

It faces major hurdles to regaining its former role and influence, and the party's statements suggesting the September 8 earthquake was a divine punishment for Moroccans’ sins…

Russian oil exports will be tested in future

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RUSSIA

Most of Russia’s hydrocarbon export revenues are generated from oil now that gas sales have collapsed. Ambitious state spending plans are based on oil revenues rising this year…

Prospects for climate diplomacy in 2024

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PROSPECTS 2024

The ‘global stocktake’ on the state of the climate, and discussions over loss and damage, will dominate debate. This will take place amid geopolitical strife and bitter…

Prospects for South Africa to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

The adverse conditions that drove the rand to record lows in the second quarter of 2023 will likely persist through the remainder of the year, despite 0.4% growth in the first…

Conflict and climate will boost MENA flight to Europe

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MIDDLE EAST/NORTH AFRICA

The threat of fallout in Lebanon from the Gaza conflict has increased the incentive to leave, while also distracting Beirut authorities from promised efforts to block migration…

Tensions between Uganda and the West may slowly grow

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UGANDA

This bill drew condemnation from the United States, the United Kingdom and other Western countries, triggering much anti-Western rhetoric from Museveni and his regime.

China will prioritise domestic over foreign policy

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CHINA

President Xi Jinping in a speech commended the accomplishments of China’s leadership since he came to power over a decade ago. At a time when China faces growing economic…