Ukraine issue will become domestic before US elections

Significance

Kyiv has long sought supplies of cluster munitions, pointing to their use by Russia in Ukraine, but Biden’s decision has caused controversy among some Democrats who see it as eroding the moral authority of the United States in discussions with allies.

Impacts

• As 2024 is an election year, the White House may well cut the amount sought for Ukraine in its fiscal 2025 budget request early next year.
• Policies toward Ukraine will be seen externally as indicative of US resolve to defend Taiwan.
• A strong consensus will remain between Republicans and Democrats that Ukraine should not be admitted to NATO before the war ends.