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Fed hike raises risk of a politics-led market downturn

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INTERNATIONAL

The probability of a rise in interest rates has shot up to around 90%, from 40% at the end of February, on stronger-than-expected inflation and economic activity. In the…

High numbers of unproductive firms will cut GDP growth

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INTERNATIONAL

Low interest rates and easy financing conditions in major economies have triggered a search for yield on the part of investors flushed with liquidity and this has allowed…

Risks will outweigh recovery chances in Eastern Europe

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EASTERN EUROPE

The economic environment has been dictated by Russia’s war in Ukraine and its market and policy implications. Next year, the prospects for the V4 economies are moderately upbeat…

Russian sanctions will hold back Turkish GDP growth

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TURKEY

The impact of the sanctions Russia imposed after Turkey shot down its warplane on November 24.

Economic worries roil Uruguay's pre-election outlook

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URUGUAY

Outlook for economic performance.

Brazil voter priorities may turn against Bolsonaro

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BRAZIL

The Brazilian economy has been negatively impacted by external shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and supply-chain constraints, as well as by poor domestic performance…

Global growth and market prospects may improve in 2016

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INTERNATIONAL

Correlation between oil prices, equity markets and global growth.

Economic success will elude Macri in Argentina

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ARGENTINA

The 2018 currency crisis left the economy in one of the deepest downturns of the last decade, repeating the cyclical pattern in place since 2011 of one year of growth followed by…

Varying economic performance metrics muddy the outlook

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UNITED STATES

Estimates of income rather than output, of household rather than firms' employment, and of real rather than nominal wages often diverge, but the gap has widened since the…

French growth will be weak over the coming quarters

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FRANCE

France’s economy has performed better than its peers this year, due to weaker inflationary pressures and strong export performance in the second quarter. However, the latest…