Brazil voter priorities may turn against Bolsonaro

Significance

The Brazilian economy has been negatively impacted by external shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and supply-chain constraints, as well as by poor domestic performance. Opinion polls indicate that economic concerns are the main election issues for voters.

Impacts

• Bolsonaro’s push to approve new spending measures will further worsen the country’s fiscal outlook.
• Bolsonaro’s law enforcement and anti-corruption agenda will lose prominence but will remain key to his political base on the right.
• Presidential candidates will increase signaling to key market players and voters as alternatives to Bolsonaro’s current economic policies.