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El Salvador poverty will create problems for Bukele

Location:

EL SALVADOR

President Nayib Bukele is highly popular, having implemented hard-line security policies that have reduced murder rates dramatically. He was re-elected in February by a landslide…

Iraqi provincial polls will boost incumbent control

Location:

IRAQ

The vote will reinstate provincial councils that were dissolved in 2019, which will in turn choose new provincial governors. The government is determined to hold an effective…

Threats of instability in Libya abound in 2024

Location:

LIBYA

While a 2020 ceasefire still holds, in the absence of new elections, the political landscape is significantly undermined by institutional rivalry. The country's fragmentation…

Turkish foreign policy will seek a power balance

Location:

TURKEY

Turkey’s confrontation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is a key driver of regional and to some extent international policy. Erdogan’s comfortable victory in the May 2023…

Egypt’s Israeli ties will persist despite war

Location:

EGYPT

It hosted an international conference on October 21 to promote diplomatic efforts to that end, and as the humanitarian crisis deepened, officials have ratcheted up their rhetoric…

Bosnian Serbs are moving closer to exiting BiH

Location:

BOSNIA

Dodik’s law would transfer responsibility for elections in RS from the Central Electoral Commission to its RS equivalent, severing the RS political system from BiH and enabling…

Armed group attack reverses Burundi-Rwanda thaw

Location:

BURUNDI/RWANDA

Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye accused Rwanda of supporting the attackers. Both countries have troops in the DRC, on opposing sides of the M23 conflict. The attack has…

Gaza will strain but not break Gulf-Iranian detente

Location:

GULF STATES

While tensions across the region have risen sharply, Gulf and Iranian officials have engaged in regular and high-level dialogue that has so far prevented a wider conflagration…

EU countries will struggle to externalise asylum

Location:

EU

Alarmed by an increase of irregular border crossings, rising numbers of asylum seekers and pressures by far-right parties, several EU governments are contemplating ideas to…

Honduras frustrations over lack of reforms will mount

Location:

HONDURAS

Slow progress in enacting reforms is fostering frustration among those who had hoped that Castro would prompt substantial change when she came to power two years ago. Her tax…