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Modi will not want ally to do too well in Bihar poll

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INDIA

Incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is hoping to retain his position. Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) is part of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Prime…

South Africa’s COSATU may struggle to have influence

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SOUTH AFRICA

A squeezed economic climate, growing challenges from rivals and uncertainty over its relationship with the ruling ANC present the federation’s leadership with an existential…

France’s Macron faces major test to bolster his appeal

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FRANCE

Yet Macron’s chronically poor approval ratings have been accompanied in the last year by a series of sustained societal protests, political missteps and growing disaffection…

Spanish vote boosts opposition’s national hopes

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SPAIN

The result was especially significant as it ended four decades of Socialist Party (PSOE) electoral dominance in Andalusia. Moreover, the PP’s absolute majority means it will not…

Prospects for South Africa in 2022

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PROSPECTS 2022

The party faces both extreme internal divisions -- which helped spark the July uprising -- and increasing voter disaffection, raising questions about its longevity as the ruling…

Union rift to spur realignment of South African labour

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SOUTH AFRICA

On March 31, COSATU expelled former Secretary-General Zwelinzima Vavi -- ostensibly for "misconduct". The move exposes deep rifts within the labour movement, which make an easy…

Prospects for China in 2021

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PROSPECTS 2021

The internal cycles of China’s governance systems will nonetheless force its leaders to formulate long-term plans and visions that will guide policymaking for years and in some…

Near-term manufacturing prospects are subdued

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INTERNATIONAL

Downside risks weigh heavily on the outlook, with global demand slowing and supply chain disruption ongoing. However, moderating commodity prices, the alleviation of logistics…

Islamic State may see a limited Iraq-Syria resurgence

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IRAQ/SYRIA

Enabled in part by responses to the pandemic, 2020 saw a temporary surge in IS assaults across rural areas of Iraq and Syria. Attacks have also again become more coordinated and…

Captive insurers gain new role from emerging risks

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INTERNATIONAL

The evolving insurance market.