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Russian arms sales to South-east Asia will fall

Location:

SOUTH-EAST ASIA

Russia is a relatively modest player in South-east Asia in terms of economic footprint, political influence and defence diplomacy. However, its arms sales to the region have…

Baghdad will struggle to manage its own borders

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IRAQ

So far, results have been mixed. There have been some positive outcomes in terms of increased customs payments and improved security. However, control of key border crossings…

Prospects for China in 2021

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PROSPECTS 2021

The internal cycles of China’s governance systems will nonetheless force its leaders to formulate long-term plans and visions that will guide policymaking for years and in some…

Popular ire may upset ZANU-PF's Zimbabwe election plan

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ZIMBABWE

The ruling ZANU-PF party appears to be trying to control the campaign and outcome to a much greater extent than in 2018. However, this effort is being complicated by record levels…

Vaccine diplomacy will earn China friends and money

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CHINA

Beijing has promised to donate millions of doses to other countries and committed to selling hundreds of millions.

Beijing's policy shifts raise nuclear weapons risks

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CHINA

China has also announced changes to its nuclear weapons posture, including a rebranding of its nuclear forces. Since becoming a nuclear weapons state in 1964, China has…

Wagner struggles to control CAR-Sudan borderlands

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CAR/SUDAN

The rebel resurgence comes despite the fact that Wagner combatants are active on both sides of the border.

NATO’s Southern Hub will turn attention southwards

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NATO

NATO’s Middle Eastern and North African role.

Russian food ban risks causing Eurasian Union tensions

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RUSSIA

Russian agriculture and the Eurasian Economic Union.

Islamic State may see a limited Iraq-Syria resurgence

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IRAQ/SYRIA

Enabled in part by responses to the pandemic, 2020 saw a temporary surge in IS assaults across rural areas of Iraq and Syria. Attacks have also again become more coordinated and…