Russian arms sales to South-east Asia will fall

Significance

Russia is a relatively modest player in South-east Asia in terms of economic footprint, political influence and defence diplomacy. However, its arms sales to the region have helped several regional states modernise their armed forces to counter internal and external security threats.

Impacts

• Rising energy and food prices caused by the Ukraine war’s fallout will fuel inflation across South-east Asia.
• A slowdown in the region’s recovery from the pandemic-induced economic crisis could trigger political unrest in some of its countries.
• Singapore will remain the only South-east Asian state to impose sanctions and export controls against Russia.