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China’s South-east Asian defence ties face constraints

Location:

CHINA

South-east Asia is a key theatre in which Chinese-US strategic rivalry plays out. Beijing is counting on regional defence diplomacy to help it push back against the United States…

Global South will become even more important to Russia

Location:

RUSSIA

Fostering closer trade and financial ties with countries outside the West is essential if Russia is to improve its economic security and enhance its sovereignty. For Moscow it is…

Appeal of nuclear energy grows in South-east Asia

Location:

SOUTH-EAST ASIA

The Philippines and other South-east Asian countries are keen on adding nuclear to their energy mixes. Geopolitics is a key factor in their efforts to realise this ambition, with…

East Asian security risks will increase

Location:

EAST ASIA

EAST ASIA: Security risks will increase

Prospects for South-east Asia to end-2023

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PROSPECTS H2 2023

Regional players will meanwhile work hard to sustain robust economic growth and affirm ASEAN ‘centrality’.

Vietnam will rethink its relations with Russia

Location:

VIETNAM

Vietnam is Russia’s closest partner in South-east Asia and has refused to criticise Moscow over the Ukraine war. Between 2000 and 2022, Russia accounted for more than 80% of…

China’s defence spending will remain stable

Location:

CHINA

Defence spending will account for 1.2% of GDP in 2024, having remained stable at around this figure for at least the past two decades. Nevertheless, outside estimates of China’s…

US trade exposure to China will remain high

Location:

CHINA/UNITED STATES

In January-November, imports of Chinese goods dropped more than 20% year-on-year. China’s share of total US imports plunged to 13.9% from 16.7% in the same period in 2022, while…

Regional engagement with Myanmar will steadily grow

Location:

MYANMAR

ASEAN continues to champion its ‘Five-Point Consensus’ (5PC) plan for easing the country’s tensions, but in parallel, key players within the group -- namely Indonesia and Malaysia…

Tough economic challenges await Taiwan president-elect

Location:

TAIWAN

The election in January of Lai Ching-te as president signalled continuity in economic policy, and economic pressure from Beijing has to date had limited effect. However, Lai faces…