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Sudan border dispute may complicate Ethiopian politics

Location:

ETHIOPIA/SUDAN

The stand-off has reactivated historical tensions over a slice of territory known as the al-Fashaga triangle, which is historically claimed by Sudan but has been cultivated for…

Beijing-ASEAN South China Sea tensions will grow

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CHINA/ASEAN

While there is always potential for unplanned escalation, recent incidents in the area are unlikely to change the basic dynamics there: China’s increasing assertion of ‘on-water’…

Tehran will weigh options to contain plane protests

Location:

IRAN

The authorities’ belated admission of the error, on January 11, sparked new waves of student-led protests across several cities, with outspoken slogans targeting the supreme…

Azerbaijan-Armenia dispute resolution faces disruption

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AZERBAIJAN/ARMENIA

Hosted in Sochi by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the two leaders repeated past general commitments to stability, border demarcation and open transport communications. The…

Japan-Russia island deal recedes as positions harden

Location:

RUSSIA/JAPAN

By the time President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met on January 22, it was apparent they were not even close to agreeing how to end the decades-long dispute over…

Taiwan-China tensions will continue to rise

Location:

TAIWAN/CHINA

In an apparent expansion of its claims in the Taiwan Strait, China has responded by increasing patrols near Kinmen. The Chinese coast guard on February 19 boarded a Taiwanese…

Belarusian need for Russia will limit angry disputes

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BELARUS/RUSSIA

Belarus is defying Russia with varying success. It has scored a win by securing aircraft purchases rather than handing over air bases, but is hamstrung by oil and gas disputes…

US arms and nuclear pressure may force Iran reaction

Location:

IRAN

The ban expires on October 18, under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 nuclear deal, from which Washington withdrew in 2018. If its extension efforts fail…

Politicisation may worsen unrest in Kenya’s North Rift

Location:

KENYA

Under this authority, the military has been deployed alongside police and multi-agency security forces to combat a spike in armed banditry that has resulted in over 100 civilians…

Venezuela's Guyana referendum will bring new tensions

Location:

VENEZUELA

Official figures suggest that 10 million people participated in a referendum held on December 3 in which over 90% of those who voted (accounting for nearly half of the electorate…