Azerbaijan-Armenia dispute resolution faces disruption

Significance

Hosted in Sochi by Russian President Vladimir Putin, the two leaders repeated past general commitments to stability, border demarcation and open transport communications. The clashes on November 15-16 were the largest, though not the first, military escalation since the 2020 war over Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku seems to be waging a campaign of attrition to force Yerevan to submit to its wishes.

Impacts

• The resurgence in fighting close to where Russian peacekeepers are deployed highlights Moscow's limitations as rule-maker.
• Iran may increase its diplomatic support for a weakened Armenia in order to maintain a regional balance.
• Turkey will encourage or reject a possible rapprochement with Armenia, depending on what Azerbaijan does.